Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Studios and MisInformation

Yesterday, I hit two different cartoon factories. In the course of my rounds, some new hires asked me questions, a few of which made me gnaw on the inside of my wizened cheeks. I've hit on this topic before, but in the interest of continuing education, I address the questions yet again:

"The studio told me the union contract only allows them to give me two weeks vacation per year ..."

The fabled union contract says this: "All weekly employees ...who have had one year of continuous employment ... shall be entitled to two (2) weeks paid vacation." (Article 8).

But wait! There's more! The contract also says:"Nothing in this Agreement shall prevent any individual from negotiating and obtaining from the Producer better conditions and terms of employment than those herein provided ..." (Article 4.C.)

So guess what? Employees are free to negotiate more vacation, higher wages, and extra benefits. (Stock options? Abso-freaking-lutely). All it takes is juice and leverage.

Some people have those things, others don't. For instance, a dozen years ago, animation employees regularly negotiated for wages that were double minimum scale. Many negotiated four ... or five ... or six weeks of yearly vacation. Nobody in management said back then: "Oh, sorry. The union contract precludes us from giving you more vacation."

"Nobody at the studio told me anything about initiation fees or dues when they recruited me. All they said was they were a 'union shop.' Then they said they were 'legally prohibited' from telling me any details ..."

Actually, no. There's this "freedom of speech" thing. It's in the Constitution. And the studio folks can tell you as much or as little as they desire. Nothing at all wrong with saying little, and if they want to say, "Gee, there are initiation fees and dues, but we don't want to give you wrong info, so here's the number of the Animation Guild (818-766-7151), call them," that's completely okay by us.

But "We're legally prohibited"? Uh, no. Because the studio isn't.

"They also said, when we finished negotiating my deal, that they'd 'prefer it if I don't tell anybody what I was making.'"

Of course they'd prefer it. Because it really simplifies their task of negotiating with others if the others have no effing idea what their fellow employees are making. But as we've said 437 times before, Section 232 California labor code states:

No employer may do any of the following:

a. Require, as a condition of employment, than an employee refrain from disclosing the amount of his or her wages

b. Require an employee to sign a waiver or other document that purports to deny the employee the right to disclose the amount of his or her wages.

c. Discharge, formally discipline, or otherwise discriminate against an employee who discloses the amount of his or her wages.

I raise all these points yet again because if I don't repeat them over and over, people forget the law and their rights when they're in a manager's office being gently intimidated.

After all. If you don't push back here and there, pretty soon you're shoved right on over the cliff.

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Monday, May 19, 2008

Mr. K.'s Baptism

One of the refreshing things about Jeffrey Katzenberg is he's honest about his beginnings in 'toon land:

"I knew nothing about animation. Nothing whatsoever," Katzenberg told The Associated Press at the Cannes Film Festival ...

Katzenberg said his indoctrination into animation came on his first day at Disney, which he joined in 1984 as head of the film division after his boss at Paramount Pictures, Michael Eisner, became Disney chief executive. In preparation for a meeting with Eisner, Katzenberg made a list of 10 critical things he needed to do at their new outfit.

"Nowhere on that list was there any mention of animation," Katzenberg said. "When the meeting was about to come to an end, Michael stopped and he said, 'Oh, by the way, do you see that building over there?' And he pointed out the window of his office ... 'That's where they make animated films.'"

"I went, 'Oh, really?' He said, 'Yes, and it's your problem.'

Happily, Jeffrey turned his 1984 "problem" into a very lucrative franchise and living, and the world's the richer for it.

But he's right, he was kind of ignorant about animation in the beginning. Back then, he went through the whole department, looking at projects, deciding what stayed on track and what would be jettisoned.

And he quickly realized that The Black Cauldron, then 80% complete, had ... ah ... issues. Jeffrey, naturally enough, looked around for ways to improve those issues. Coming from a live-action background, he asked to look at "all the outtakes."

He was told: "We don't have any. There aren't any outtakes in animation."

This was one of Mr. Katzenberg's early lessons in cartoon making. But Mr. Katzenberg was a quick study, and didn't have to be taught twice. Which is why he's running a successful animation studio today.

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Sunday, May 18, 2008

Battle of C.G.I. Effects on Foreign Shores

... and day-glo "cartoony" viz effex lose out to the photo-realistic type:

Summer tentpole season hit a speed bump overseas, as the opening of “Speed Racer” met a wall of audience indifference ... “Speed” hit the $1 million mark in only three of its 30 markets — $2.5 million in South Korea, where it was a distant second to the second frame of “Iron Man”; $2 million in Mexico; and $1.3 million in Brazil.

The European markets were far less interested. Spain led the way with $891,000, followed by $714,000 in the U.K., $411,000 in Italy and an especially dismal $146,908 at 590 in Germany, where it finished eighth ...

The problem seems to be that nobody is overly enthralled with the flick. For example:

“Speed Racer” had received plenty of Teutonic press, since it was entirely shot at Studio Babelsberg outside Berlin and partially financed by federal and regional film grants. One exhib blames the pic’s failure not only on negative reviews and a lack of familiarity among Germans with the 1960s toon series upon which it’s based, but also on a possible aversion to its hyperkinetic graphics.

“I think people saw this computer game world and were not impressed,” he notes. “It was not something they wanted to immerse themselves in for two hours.”

By contrast, Iron Man colected $38.7 million in its second week. So in this case, photo-realism in the c.g.i. area made the difference. (Couldn't have had anything to do with acting and story, could it?)

And Horton Hears a Who has collected $136+ million in foreign lands, and over $150 mill stateside.

So does it crack the $300 million barrier, or not?

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Saturday, May 17, 2008

TAG 401(k) Choices

Back to retirement investments.

Often at the end of my 401(k) enrollment meetings, an artist asks: "Okay, I'm getting into this 401(k) Pension thing. So what do I invest in?"

I usually blather on, listing various options, stressing that I'm not a certified financial advisor. But since this is going to be a semi-succinct post, let me whittle today's advice down to a few points ...

Most 401(K) plans limit a participant's options. They give you three or four bond funds, ten or twenty stock funds (foreign and domestic), a choice of "Retirement Destination" funds which are a collection of investment accounts that put you in a set ratio of stock and bond selections which become more conservative (tilted more to bonds) as you get closer to retirement.

We get gripes from time to time about fund choices, and I sympathize, but few 401(k) plans give sophisticated investors the range of options they like. (A smattering of 401(k) Plans have "brokerage windows" where participants can invest in whatever they desire, but these drive administrative costs way up and few plans have them.)

Most participants, however, aren't sophisticated investors. Most get the information and forms for the TAG Plan and then get their own financial advisor to help them ; others ask me (did I already say this?): "What funds do I get into?"

I always have a short, simple answer. Be broadly diversified, have foreign stock, domestic stocks, and bonds. And patience. Plenty of patience.

I don't believe investing needs to be complicated. In the TAG plan (you can find a list of all the funds on page 9 at the link above), there are a bunch of ways to do that. One way is do a single "Retirement Destination" account. A single click on the fund with your retirement date, and you're done.

But maybe a better way is to go for more quality and use two funds from the Plan. The stock fund would be T. Rowe Price Spectrum Growth, highly rated by Morningstar and a choice that gives you wide stock diversification.

"...Spectrum Growth is a great choice for one-stop exposure ... For investors with long time horizons and a willingness to ride out the inevitable bumps of an all-stock portfilio, this fund holds much appeal ...

Moderate costs are one reason for that ...Extending the [cost] edge is the quality of the fund's underlying holdings. Indeed, a few of them, such as T. Rowe Price Equity Income, are Analyst Picks. Finally the fund benefits from skilled management at the top ...

Morningstar Funds 500

The other fund would be PIMCO Total Return, giving you a big slug of bonds, run by Bill Gross and his merry band of top-flight analysts down in Newport Beach, CA.

PTR in an intermediate bond fund so there will be a little up and down to it, but Gross is one of the savviest bond traders in the business (don't let the beach address fool you).

... Manager Bill Gross and PIMCO are our Fixded Income Fund Managers of the Year for 2007. ...Gross and PIMCO won with style ...[T]hey moved into higher-quality fonds(and away from corporate fare) and took on more interest-rate sensitivity ... Thanks to its bets, the fund has looked like a champ since mid-2007 ... It's more than 9% total return (2007) ranks in the intermediate bond category top 1% ...

-- Morningstar Funds 500

The only other question is: how much of your hard-earned money should you put in one account, and how much in another? That, of course, depends on your tolerance for risk, but my non-certified advice ...

In your twenties and thirties, plunk down 70% in stocks and 30% in bonds.

In your forties and fifties, try a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.

And when you reach geezerhood, focus on a mix of 50/50 or maybe even 60-70% bonds and 30-40% stocks. (Your bond/stock ratio will depend on your tolerance for the roller-coaster ride that stocks give you.)

Final thought: TAG is having an investment seminar for members at its Tuesday, May 27th membership meeting. We'll have three financial advisors there to answer any and all questions, so you might want to mark your calendar.

(More about this later.)

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Springtime Box Office

(Maybe it would be useful if I put up the right g.d. graphic.)

With early Friday returns in, Chronicles of Narnia, The Sequel collects over $19 million, bumping Stan Lee's creation down to second place (where it will have to console itself with a $200 million domestic box office in its 16th day or release -- today) ...

Speed Racer decelerates, collecting two million dollars in fourth position. Outside of Iron Man, there is only one film in the Top Ten that's grossed over $50 million (Sarah Marshall). Obviously that will change by the end of the weekend ...

Update: Chronicles of Narnia, Part Deux comes in at #1, but $9 million under the first edition ... or as Ms. Finke puts it:

FRIENDLY KIDS FRANCHISE TURNS TOO FIERCE: Darker 'Narnia 2' Falls $ Short of Original

Meanwhile, Speed Racer is dying a quick and ignoble death, dropping 58.8% in the second lap, collecting $24,367,000 after two weeks. (This is one Joel Silver production that won't --- I'm going out on a flimsy limb here -- make its money back.) Or as Nikki says:

Warner Bros' anime actioner Speed Racer continues as a major bomb, ending Friday No. 4 with only $7.7M (-59%). The $160M movie's cume is just $29.8M -- which means it won't get beyond $50M in total domestic box office.

(Why N.F.'s totals are different than BO Mojo's, I have no idea.)

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Friday, May 16, 2008

Mid-May Linkorama

Another round of animation tidbits ...

Time Magazine hossanahs the new DreamWorks opus Kung Fu Panda:

KFP, from a clever screenplay by ex-King of the Hill writers Jonathan Aibel and Glenn Berger, is a tribute to the literally hundreds of '70s Hong Kong martial arts dramas that flooded Saturday-morning U.S. TV in the wake of Bruce Lee's success with Enter the Dragon. The plot, of a laggard who undergoes rigorous training to become a great fighter, is familiar from many Jackie Chan films, including the one that made him a star, Drunken Master. Fans of Chang Cheh's Five Venoms movies will have no trouble spotting this movie's Furious Five: the Crane (David Cross), Viper (Lucy Liu), Mantis (Seth Rogen), Tigress (Angelina Jolie) and Monkey — voiced by Chan himself, as a way of lending his vocal blessing to the project.

Chan's confidence was well placed. Directors John Stevenson and Mark Osborne may have an unhealthy fondness for humiliating physical humor — there are more sight gags of fat creatures hurting themselves than in an entire run of Super Bowl commercials — but they are essentially respectful toward the conventions of martial arts films and the Zen spirituality underlining them.

(The Hollywood Reporter's take on the film is here.)

And we'll touch on a big animation company we don't think much about here, Electronic Arts:

Acquisition charges pushed video game publisher Electronic Arts to a loss for its fiscal fourth quarter, but the company's strong software sales helped the company's revenue blow past analyst expectations.

The company reported a $94 million loss for the quarter, or 34 cents per share, compared to a $25 million loss, or 8 cents per share, a year ago. Net revenue, however, was up 84 percent to $1.13 billion, with titles such as "Rock Band" and "Burnout Paradise" leading the way ...

EA’s optimistic forecast reflects widespread optimism in the video game industry. Year-to-date, game software is on pace for record sales, and EA still has several major titles in the wings.

Leading that pack is "Spore," the long-in-production title from Will Wright, the creator of "The Sims" franchise. Due Sept. 7, the game will let players create unique creatures and guide their evolution from the embryonic stage to the space age. The company is also working on "The Sims 3".

EA Sports will launch "Facebreaker," its first new franchise since 2002. Expansions for the "Battlefield" and "Command & Conquer" franchise are also due soon. And the company will debut more of its fall and winter lineup at the E3 Media Summit in July. All totaled, the company has more than 15 games scheduled for release this year—and expects to make between 63 and 68 percent of its revenue in the second half of the year.

"I believe it’s the best and most exciting lineup in EA’s history," said Riccitiello.

It appears that EA and the industry have not yet crash and burned because of on-line gaming ...

The Wall Street Journal reviews "The Pixar Touch" (a tome we touched on here earlier):

The conventional wisdom – not discouraged by the company itself – is that Pixar's genius flows from Steve Jobs, who started the studio from a computer-animation division he bought from Lucasfilm for $10 million after he left Apple Computer Inc. in 1985. The truth is much more complex and far more interesting, as David A. Price reports in "The Pixar Touch." Mr. Price, in addition to offering unprecedented detail about the notoriously press-shy company's workings, tells a story that abounds with lessons for business people and creative artists alike. Chief among the lessons is that no one invents anything in isolation and that getting fired can turn out to be a promotion.

The Pixar story begins at a time and place that few of the company's many admirers would guess: the University of Utah in the 1960s. The school's computer-science department, founded by a Mormon elder, attracted some of the era's brightest minds – students included software-programming guru Alan Kay, John Warnock (who would go on to co-found Adobe Systems Inc.) and Jim Clark (Netscape). Another of the star students, Edwin Catmull, was recruited by the New York Institute of Technology to direct its computer-graphics lab. There he met a collection of like-minded graphics programmers, including a long-haired Californian named Alvy Ray Smith, now revered as a computer-graphics pioneer ...

The Fox Network will be rolling out a couple of new animated series for prime time -- not exactly unknown news, but detailed by the Montreal Gazette here:

Two animated comedies are set for midseason, where they will join Fox's animation duo of The Simpsons and Family Guy.

The Cleveland Show is a spinoff from Family Guy, and focuses on the Griffins' neighbour, Cleveland. And Sit Down, Shut Up, about the faculty at a dysfunctional high school, reunites Arrested Development creator Mitchell Hurwitz with Arrested stars Jason Bateman, Will Arnett and Henry Winkler. It's based on the live-action comedy Sit Down, Shut Up which originated in Australia.

King of the Hill and American Dad will return in the fall, but will go on hiatus in midseason to make room for Sit Down, Shut Up and The Cleveland Show.

While on the subject of Fox and animated fare, the Rupe conglomerate is keen on developing more 'toon talent:

News Corp. is drawing up big small-screen animation plans. 20th Century Fox TV and Fox Broadcasting Co. have teamed to launch Fox Inkubation, a joint venture designed to discover new animation talent and develop animated projects outside of the traditional model.

Additionally, 20th TV has formed a new animation department focused on more conventional development of cartoon series and has tapped Jennifer Howell, executive vice president of "South Park" creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker's Important Films, to run it.

"So much of our success has been driven by animated shows, and we have been contemplating how to step up our efforts in the area," 20th TV chairman Gary Newman said. "We believe it is critical to our future success." ...

This short piece in the NY Times is eleven days old, but it caught my attention: the various possessions and domains of Andrew Stanton:

Favorite item in house: My ergonomic office chair. It is based on the tension you put on it. I swear by it. I love it. It brings down my blood pressure ...

There seems to be new production centers springing up across the globe. India, Shanghai, Taiwan, Korea. Name a location, there seems to be a production house there. But here's one I hadn't seen before (maybe I lead too sheltered a life):

Movie production company Fable Works has unveiled plans to produce Cereal Heroes, an animated 3D feature film that is expected to launch in 2010.

The movie will be produced at Sparx Animation Studios in Paris, France and Ho-chi-min, Vietnam ...

Add on: Andrew (Shrek, Shrek II) Adamson talks about his current live action gig, those Narnia flicks. But now he's taking a break:

"I'm passing the directorial reins on for the next instalment, though I will keep my hand in as a producer. It's been a real labour of love, and I do find it hard to let go. I always worry they'll find out I'm still a 13-year-old at heart."

We wish you a productive and life-enhancing weekend.

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Thursday, May 15, 2008

Leverage and LEVERAGE

I beat on this leverage thingamabob, largely because I run into so many different incarnations of it. Here is yet another example.

A few days back, I had a meeting with an employee with one of the major studios, and he was a little miffed that he'd been passed over for some jobs he was clearly qualified for:

"They seemed to ignore me until I complained and said I wanted to leave. Then they came back with an offer. It took me bitching about the way I'd been treated and saying I wanted out to get them to realize I had skills sets they really needed, to get them to finally take me seriously."

An old story, many times told. When I heard his tale of woe, I flashed on this anecdote from Charlton Heston's autobiography:

...One evening after looking at dailies [for 55 Days at Peking I greeted [my driver] Ricardo [and asked how he was doing.]

"Well enough, Senor, except that I have not been paid in five weeks."

"Five weeks?" I said, stunned. "You should have told me sooner!" ...

I went inside to the comptroller's office ... When I told him the story, he was outraged. He pressed the intercom and chewed somebody out in a torrent of profane Spanish too fast for me to follow fully.

"A thousand apologies, my dear Chuck," he said, clasping my had. "Please tell your driver he will be paid tomorrow morning."

... I finally thought some days later to check on Ricardo's situation. "Your back pay all caught up now?" I asked ...

"Oh no, Senor. No one will speak to me about it. It is now more than six weeks." Now I was angry as well as appalled.

"What the hell is doing on here?" I said, striding into the comptroller's office. "You're spending however many million it is by now on this film, and stiffing a poor driver working for forty bucks a week?!"

[The comptroller] leapt to this feet and screamed "Frederico! Venga ... en seguida!" In seconds his head accountant ran in and stood trembling. For fully two minutes [the comptroller] stripped the skin off him, switching to English toward the end to make sure I was following...

...At the end of the day... I remembered to check with Ricardo. No, he had still not been paid. I walked in on [the comptroller] still in my uniform. He stood, amazed. "Chuck!! Please, please do not tell me your poor Ric does not yet have his money!"

"No," I said. "He's been paid. By me. Through this week and one month's advance. Now you don't owe him. You owe ME. I'd like the money right away, please."

[The comptroller] never turned a hair. He pulled open a drawer in his desk crammed full of neat stacks of thousand-peseta notes, peeled off a dozen or so, and passed them over ...

I told the above to the artist who had been crapped on. We both agreed it pretty neatly encapsulated the money, power relationships and bullshit that have always been part of film-making. And most importantly, the leverage it takes to achieve certain ends.

The question that animation artists with at least some clout have asked over the years: "Why do I have to become a jerk before I get a good response from management?"

Simple. It's not that the movie higher-ups are calloused a-holes. It's that they mostly have other fish to fry (like keeping those with Big Leverage happy). And they have little time or energy left over to care about ... or notice ... anything else.

It's probably what Charlton Heston would tell us, if he were still alive. But then, he's already told everybody ... in his book.

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Wednesday, May 14, 2008

The Disney Experience

Spent part of the afternoon at the Disney hat building beside the famed 134 freeway. For a change I went straight to the story department and kibitzed with designers and story artists ...

Lots of animation has been handed out for first-act sequences for Princess and the Frog. One staffer said: "We're past the experimental phase for animation and into actual production." More artists are steadily coming on board.

A group of Disney story artists have banded together to produce an original comic book. Before it gets published this summer, I'll see if it's okay for me to tout it here.

On my way out, I stopped to watch the animated clips for Bolt now unspooling in the long display case in the entrance hall. They were silent, but highly amusing. The character designs are appealing and the animation crisp. And the gags -- at least the ones I saw -- have a snap and punch to them.

Come November, we'll see if the whole is equal to the entertaining parts displayed in the hall.

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Lyn Kroeger, 1930-2008

Lyn Kroeger and the Seven Dwarves

Assistant animator Lyn Kroeger passed away March 29 at the age of seventy-seven.

Kroeger started as an inbetweener at Disney in 1954 on Lady and the Tramp. The above John Sparey caricature shows Kroeger as Snow White with (from left to right) Bill Mahood, Osvaldo Franca, Sparey, Gary Mooney, Bob Carr, Dick Hoffman and Wes Herschensohn as the seven dwarves.

Kroeger resigned from Disney after Lady and went on to work at Quartet, Melendez, Murakami/Wolf, Haboush, Levitow-Hansen, Duck Soup and Hanna-Barbera, until she left the industry in 1984.

Below, a Sparey portrait of five women at Disney (from left to right): Nancy Stapp, Ruth Kissane, Janie McIntosh, Kroeger and Eva Schneider.

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Tuesday, May 13, 2008

12th Marc Davis Celebration of Animation

We're a trifle late posting this, but Kevin writes:

My friend Charles Solomon hosted four panelists: Andreas Deja, Pete Docter, James Baxter, and Eric Goldberg. Each panelist talked a bit about ways they were mentored, especially by some of the Disney greats, and showed a clip from a classic Disney film followed by a clip of some of their own work.

Here are a few scattered thoughts and insights I jotted down from the evening. Andreas went first. He spoke about how, when he was animating Jafar, he drew on Marc Davis’ work on Maleficent. After Andreas saw the work going into the Genie and some of the other characters in Aladdin, he realized he couldn’t compete with that kind of broadness, so he decided to underplay Jafar. Jafar would become the dark cloud that hovered over the bright, energetic proceedings of the film.

He recalled Marc saying a tough thing about animating Maleficent was that “she’s a character who stands there giving speeches.” Anyone who has animated acting and dialog scenes knows how difficult, and boring, that can be. Andreas played a clip from Sleeping Beauty that beautifully illustrated how Marc overcame that difficulty. I don’t have time to find and upload the clip right now, but it’s one that I’ll try to upload soon for a little analysis ...

Pete Docter spoke of being mentored by Joe Grant. Joe liked to ask the question: “What are you giving to the audience to take home?” What he meant was what part of the animation or story will stick with the audience beyond that momentary viewing. Pete recalled being in school and the urge some students had to do such intensely personal films (”like therapy”!) that they were inaccessible to the audience. He always keeps in mind that, no matter how much we put our own tastes into our work, what gets on the screen must be something the audience will connect with and respond to.

He also spoke of Ollie Johnston talking about the surprising power of physical touch, and how moving it is when one character convincingly touches another. Yes, that can be tricky in CG, where characters simply intersect each other, and lots of digital wizardry goes into any physical contact between characters, but the payoff can be huge. Those physical gestures and touches draw on the power of real relationships, and in animating them we need to draw upon our own experiences and relationships.

He showed a clip from The Jungle Book of Mowgli meeting Baloo (another clip worthy of detailed study), and followed it with a clip of Sully and Boo playing and hugging in Monsters, Inc. Between those clips and Pete talking of his feelings towards his own children, there was a lot of misty eyes in the theater!

James Baxter spoke of learning from Milt Kahl by analyzing his work and deeply studying his original scenes in the Disney morgue. Like many animators, James initially used to use a ton of charts in his work, but he kept noticing that Milt virtually always had a single chart. He wasn’t animating with a checklist of the 12 principles, he wasn’t thinking of individual parts — he had it all flowing together. “It was all there.” A key to Milt’s technique was to do lots of partial drawings of hands, etc. on the inbetweens, rather than devising complex charts for his assistant to follow (as I’ve mentioned before, that exactly the way James works, too). Milt couldn’t explain what he did or how he did it (this from Andreas Deja, who had many conversations with Milt), but James was able to draw important lessons by carefully studying the actual work.

James also mentioned the importance of drawing on the story-artist’s work, and how much Milt and the other Disney animators got from Bill Pete and other great story artists, just as James drew on Lorna Cook’s great boards in his work on Rafiki (Lorna boarded virtually all of the Rafiki sequences, just as James animated virtually all of those scenes). James then showed a clip of King Louie (by Milt) from The Jungle Book, followed by Rafiki from The Lion King.

Eric Goldberg talked about Ward Kimball and Freddie Moore in particular. I became so caught up in the clips that I stopped taking notes, so I apologize. Eric showed a great excerpt from The Three Caballeros, followed by the A Friend Like Me song from Aladdin. When Chuck Jones took a tour of Disney during the making of Aladdin and saw that animation by the Goldberg unit, he immediately connected it with the song in Three Caballeros. Later, when Ward Kimball saw it, he commented, “Yeah, like MTV!”

One of the things that this program highlighted, and that I’ve been concerned with for awhile, is the huge difference in mentoring between hand-drawn animation and CG animation. It used to be that animators began as assistants and ruff inbetweeners, and worked their way up the ranks. For a long time the accepted wisdom was that it took about six years of concerted effort to become an animator. There were exceptions, but long periods of training and mentoring were generally part of the process to becoming a competent animator.

In CG, there aren’t any assistant positions. Pete Docter even mentioned that they’d tried to have an assistant for Doug Sweetland (and I assume for other key animators), but that it hadn’t worked. During Shark Tale production DreamWorks also experimented with animation assistants, but gave up on it after that film. In the CG animation world you basically get the best training you can, and hope to get hired right onto a production. Yes, most studios have “mentors” who are assigned to new hires, and there’s usually a ramp-up or training process, but it’s nothing compared to how it used to be.

When I asked about this during the Q&A, it was encouraging to hear from James Baxter that a few studios were seriously looking at that issue, and my guess is that that’s part of the reason he’s gone back to DreamWorks. This very issue is part of the reason I started doing these posts. There’s so much generous teaching and mentoring I’ve gotten that it feels good to pass some of it on. Of course, I still have as much to learn as I have to teach, but that’s the beauty of animation.

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They Know a Vein of Gold When They See It ...

One thing the gang that Rupert built knows better than almost anybody: When you've got yourself a winner, you keep riding it:

Twentieth Century Fox will release sequel "Alvin and the Chipmunks II" on March 19, 2010. A followup had been expected, given the breakaway success of the first pic, which grossed $217.3 domestically and $141.1 million overseas for a worldwide haul of $358.4 million.

Horton Hears a Who has done well, but Alvin (to date) has done better by $75 million worldwide, give or take.

We lo-ove animation to burn up the box office, because then more animation gets made. And that's good for the community. However, there is one small fly in the ointment:

... the film ... has no script yet. Furthermore, executives haven't settled on a concept for the sequel ...

Naive infants that we are, we believe that having solid scripts and concepts in hand are a good thing. And not having them can be ... problematical.

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A job listing from Disney

NOTE: When U.S. studios wish to import a technical director or other worker from overseas under an H1-B immigration visa, they need to post a job notice to insure that there is nobody in the domestic talent pool available.

We have received the following job listing in connection with an H-1B visa application from Walt Disney Pictures.

Operating Company: Walt Disney Pictures

Job Location: Burbank, CA

Job Title: Technical Director, Animation

Job Duties:

  • Build, develop and refine computer systems and controls to construct complex organic 3D and articulated sets and prop models, digital implements, vehicles, buildings and implements.
  • Use computer animation production applications software including Maya and CGI/traditional artwork to develop character-deformation systems and corresponding controls that will define the layout and movement of characters and other computer generated elements.
  • Use polygonal, NURBS, (mathematical-code representation of 3D objects), modeling in Sub D's, and subdivision topologies to create surface models ranging from highly stylized cartoon characters to photo-realistic fantasy creatures.
  • Create 3D characters/props and environments from 2D drawings.
  • Establish technical requirements and priorities and animation controls and systems based on directions from Leads and Supervisors and feedback from the Director(s).
  • Minimum Requirements: Bachelor's degree, or foreign equivalent, in Design, Fine Arts or related field and 2 years experience in the position offered or as Digital Designer.
  • Other requirements include: CGI; Maya; Modeling in Sub D's; NURBS; Creation of 3D characters/props and environments from 2D drawings.

Salary: $107,987 per year.

Interested applicants should submit resume to:

Walt Disney Pictures
attn: Anne Kallstrom
POB 6217
Burbank, CA 91510

Applicants must possess legal authorization to work in the United States.

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Monday, May 12, 2008

Peak Cartoon

Maybe it is like some critics say. Creativity, like national power, hits a peak and then inevitably declines, never to hit the magical summit again. Roger Moore (the movie and book critic, not the former James Bond) maintains that just such a scenario is now happening at Disney's new animation studio:

... Pixar has ramped up production to the point where they're doing the same thing Disney Feature Animation did before the bottom fell out-- a film a year, whether everything is ready (story-wise, casting, etc.) or not. The implication that Pixar is the gold standard and will always be seems short-sighted. They need Wall-E to hit. Not as badly as Dreamworks needs a blockbuster outside of the Shrek franchise, but they do need big Wall-E numbers ...

Uh, it really isn't because you do one movie a year ... or two ... or five. It's how many good movies you make.

See, I was stumbling around Disney's when they were hitting on all cylinders ... and also when the bottom fell out ... and here's at least some of the reasons everything went south (none having to do with numbers of films):

They started making the same feature, over and over. There's only so many times you can make the Animated Broadway musical before the public starts to lose interest, muttering to itself: "Haven't we seen this already?"

(In the teaching business -- which I was in for a time -- wise older teachers told stupid younger teachers: "Sure you've got a great lesson plan. But you can't go on using it forever. Sooner or later the kids get bored with it and tune out." This also happens with Hollywood films.)

They built empires. When I left Disney in 1986, there were three production people serving an animation staff of 160 artists. By the late 1990s, there were almost as many production managers, production coordinators, production assistants and junior and senior vice-presidents as creatives. At one point there were somewhere around 26 animation vice-presidents, and that was about 25 too many. Because what that bureaucracy did was make lots of bureaucratic work for itself, with the nasty side effect of gumming up the works creatively.

(A storyboard artist once told me: I've got to go to the scheduling person to get on the master calendar for a meeting with the director. They send me an e-mail giving me the time and date." My face fell atop the floor.)

Management started second and third-guessing every decision. Disney veeps would greenlight a picture, change their mind, restart a picture. They would hire a director, then fire him. They would hire two directors. Some features were in work six or seven years, reworked dozens of times. (Home on the Range is a vivid example of this "do and redo" mentality.)

I could go on, but you get the idea. When a place becomes top-heavy with paper pushers who don't add any creative oomph to the enterprise, but lots of red tape that slows the business of making pictures to an ineffective crawl, it is well and truly over.

But "doing one picture a year"? That really isn't the issue.

And it isn't for Pixar. The dangers for the boys and girls at the Emeryville studio aren't the numbers of productions, but rather: Can they avoid repeating shtick? Will they wade clear of bureaucratic quicksand? Will the creative juices keep flowing?

Nobody hits a home run everytime they step to the plate, and Pixar won't either. The public is often fickle and always changeable. But accelerating production to one picture a year won't kill the Golden Desk Lamp.

Those other things will.

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Roth 401(k)s!

Back (temporarily) to financial stuff, retirement stuff.

There have been questions about getting a "Roth" option built into the TAG 401(k) Plan, and as requested, I've gone to the Plan advisor and will shortly bring the subject up to Plan trustees. In the meantime, I'm throwing up this post to provide an overview of the subject.

To start, a Roth 401(k) is like a a Roth IRA: You tuck money on which you've already paid income taxes into a pension savings plan, and any earnings on that money will be tax free when you pull the loot out to live on during retirement.

With a traditional 401(k) Plan or traditional IRA, you pay no income taxes on your initial contributions, but pay income taxes on withdrawals when you reach retirement age ...

The thinking is that you will be in a lower tax bracket in retirement than during your peak earning years, when the tax deduction you don't get with a Roth could be really useful.

Obviously, this may or may not be true. Tax brackets can always change. You might have a lot of income during retirement. But here's the thinking of one of the Plan's outside financial advisors (one of the gurus at 401(k) Advisors) that I share with you now:

Vendors now have a bit more experience, systemwise, with the Roth 401(k), and the concept has picked up a bit more traction with some plans. My concerns are the same as initially. This product is often misunderstood. Roth does not present an opportunity for any greater savings by virtue of the Roth, only re characterizing contributions from pre-tax to post-tax.

Any gains ultimately depend on tax bracket increases at retirement. Many people will say...."taxes will go up". While that may be true, most (99%) 401(k) participants will not be retiring at 100% of their pre-retirement income, so tax rates would have to go up sufficiently to exceed the inherent disparity created based on actual retirement income vs. tax rates then in place.

What our advisor is saying here is that the tax break you get up front with a regular 401(k) could well be larger than the one you get on the back end with a Roth 401(k). He continues:

This is often down-played in the press by assuming either a gross up in the contributions or (in many cases) faulty math.

Basically, you would need a crystal ball to know into what tax bracket a 35-year-old will be retiring to know if that 35-year-old would benefit from Roth.

Roth typically makes the most sense for either 1) a very high net-worth person, who can generate a significant Roth account balance or 2) a young worker who is in a low tax bracket now, and who will escalate signficantly in salary over time. (This person would also need to know when his tax bracket will reward him/her for moving back into a traditional 401(k).)

The long and short of it? Sometimes being in a traditional 401(k) is a better move than being in a Roth, and sometimes the reverse is true. According to Mass Mutual, 22% of surveyed plans now offer a Roth option.

What muddies any calculation is that nobody can know what tax rates and brackets will be in the future (Congress is funny that way). As a manager at Mass Mutual said to me last week: "When I got into the business, top tax rates were 70%, and back then I thought those rates would be going up. Shows what I know!" Back to the advisor:

The Roth 401(k) requires separate payroll tracking and the requirement to educate all employees in the Roth option. If these issues are not significant concerns perhaps, Roth should be considered.

A couple of final points: A) TAG's 401(k) Plan administrator has said that individual participants who roll their traditional 401(k) money out of the Plan can convert it into a Roth IRA (obviously, income taxes would have to be paid during the conversion). B) For any 401(k) Plan with a Roth option, participants would have to choose between doing Roth-style contributions (income taxes paid), and a traditional 401(k) (income taxes deferred). They couldn't do both at once.

This will be a topic of conversation with 401(k) Plan trustees going forward. I don't believe the union trustees have any issues with doing a Roth, but I don't know what the company trustees think about it. When I know more, I will tell you.

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Foreign Box Office

To nobody's surprise, Iron Man is as potent overseas as he is on the North American continent:

... In a sign that international moviegoers are hungry for big-budget "event" pics, "Iron Man" nearly became the 11th film to launch at more than $100 million. The record holder is last May's $251 million launch of "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"; of the 10 pics to cross the century mark upon opening, only two weren't sequels -- "The Da Vinci Code" and "War of the Worlds."

But what's still of interest to animation fans (of the non special effects variety) is how the Big Elephant is doing:

Family fave "Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!" grabbed $3.7 million at 1,776 for a $132 million international cume.

Horton is pretty near the end of his domestic run, slightly north of $150 million. With a little more push on the foreign front, the feature should crack $150 mill and run a $300 million total before it swings into DVD land.

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Sunday, May 11, 2008

Homer's Big Ride

Variety notes that The Simpsons once again roams beyond the teevee, this time charging headfirst into their own big amusement park ride:

..."Simpsons'" creators worked closely with Universal Creative to develop the $40 million ride over the past two years.

"They wanted to make sure it was different from the television show and 'The Simpsons Movie,' " says Michael West, director and exec producer at U Creative.

At forty million bucks, this thrill-ride extravaganza, minute for minute is rocketing past feature animation budget territory. A Simpsons Ride staffer said:

"They had a good size crew working on it here at the studio, and we were making lots of changes all the way along. Some Simpson writers worked on it all through the WGA strike, since it wasn't covered work.

"I understand Universal opened the ride a few days later than they wanted in Florida because of extended deadlines, but what the hey. It's a good ride."

In the next few days, we can all run over to Universal Hollywood and see what all the time, effort and money has brought forth. The Simpsons Rid opens on May 19.

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Saturday, May 10, 2008

The Links of 'Toon

More animation links .. and a few that are ... uh ... sort of animation.

Jazz.com offers a brief overview of jazz and cartoons:

... [J]azz and cartoons? What could be farther from the spirit of jazz than low-brow animated entertainment for kids. Yet there is a long history of mutual interaction between these two art forms. Raymond Scott’s quirky music served as inspiration both for the soundtracks of countless Looney Tunes and Merrie Melodies cartoons, as well as for serious jazz musicians. Artists as diverse as Don Byron, Bob Moog, the Dave Brubeck Octet and the Kronos Quartet have reveled in its peculiarities.

And Bugs Bunny, don’t forget, was the prototypical hipster back at a time when only Lester Young was doing a better job of defining the cool ethos -- just as Elmer Fudd has long served as the prototype for all "squares," who are sometimes dubbed (in Elmer's honor) as fuddy-duddies. When I write the hidden history of the twentieth century, Bugs and Prez will play leading roles. (Don't laugh, my friends, I'm serious!)

New trailers of Pixar features aren't the only teasers arriving on the internets. This past week, snippets for Kung Fu Panda and Igor came calling:

We have the new trailers for Kung Fu Panda and Igor. Kung Fu Panda hits theaters on June 6 and stars the voice talents of Jack Black, Angelina Jolie, Lucy Liu, Dustin Hoffman, Jackie Chan and Ian McShane. Igor will be released on September 19 and features the voices of John Cusack, Steve Buscemi, Jay Leno, Eddie Izzard, Sean Hayes, John Cleese, Molly Shannon, Jennifer Coolidge and Arsenio Hall.

And Shrek the Musical is set to open this summer. As goes Disney's cross-polination of varying media, so goes DreamWorks Animation:

SHREK THE MUSICAL is DreamWorks Animation's first venture in legitimate theater. The production was initiated when Sam Mendes, a big fan of the first Shrek film, suggested the idea of creating a musical to DreamWorks Animation's Jeffrey Katzenberg around the time the second film was in production. The musical is being produced by DreamWorks Theatricals (Bill Damaschke, President) and Neal Street Productions, Ltd (principals Sam Mendes and Caro Newling).

Wade Sampson at Mouse Planet has a snippet of Disneyland history: How the often parodiced but never topped Small World came to be:

Pepsi executives went to California in February 1963 and met with Disneyland’s construction boss, Admiral Joe “Can Do” Fowler who had to sadly inform the executives that Disney “couldn’t do” the project since it was less than a year before the fair opening and that Disney was experiencing challenges with all the innovative things they were working on for the other three pavilions and needed to focus all their resources on those projects. When Walt found out, he was incensed. According to one Disney executive, Walt said, “I’ll make those decisions. Tell Pepsi I’ll do it!” ...

That famous song that some people find tortuous had an interesting creation. Originally, Walt had wanted the children to sing their national anthems. However, when it was attempted, it was a cacophony that was insufferable. Walt called in songwriters the Sherman Brothers who were hard at work on “Mary Poppins.” He told them he wanted a song like “Row, Row, Row Your Boat” that would be melodious and was simple enough that it could be repeated over and over in different languages.

Imagineer Harriet Burns remembered Walt talking to the Sherman Brothers at WED and using the phrase “it’s a small world after all” to describe the feeling he wanted. Walt never meant the phrase to be a title or even a lyric but was just making a casual remark to try and capture the spirit of song that talked about the children of the world.

The brothers quickly came up with the famous song but worried that it came so quickly, so they worked on two more songs trying to top it. However, with time running out, Walt was anxious to hear what they written at that point and they played the simple song first. They never got a chance to share the other two songs when Walt said, “That will work” which most Disney employees knew was high praise from Walt. Those who knew Walt have said that Walt really loved the song...

Hm. There was a push in the Connecticut legislature to get Blue Sky Animation more tax credits than it already had for moving out of New York. But apparently it didn't fly.

Although the General Assembly did not approve financial incentives for Blue Sky Studios Inc. and USA Boxing, the two organizations are still moving to lower Fairfield County in some form, House Speaker James Amann, D-Milford, said yesterday.

Amann tried for months to convince colleagues in the General Assembly to offer Blue Sky, a digital animation studio, more film tax credits to move from White Plains, N.Y., to Greenwich. ... A bill passed last year to lure digital animators in general and Blue Sky in particular to the state capped the annual pool of available tax credits at $15 million.

Amann said Blue Sky needed more and wanted the legislation amended to raise the cap to $25 million. Some lawmakers ... questioned the need to provide Blue Sky with more money because the company already had signed a lease for a 106,000-square-foot office off King Street in Greenwich.

For some reason, with the state budget running in the red, and the studio move already an accomplished reality, some politicians questioned the need to give Fox-News Corp. more of a break.

Out on the film-plug tour, Pixar director Andrew Stanton talks about Wall-E and film-making in general:

... [A]sked about where the line is drawn between animated and traditional live-action films, Stanton refuted the existence of such a dividing line. “Ever since particularly ‘Lord of the Rings,’ there [are] not many action films and fantasy films and adventure films that don’t have some mix of using computer graphics and using live action,” Stanton said, going on to describe the limitless possibilities modern CGI technology offers. “If you can think of it and you can imagine it, you can make it. … The tools are all there now to just get whatever kind of look you want.” ...

Speaking of new trailers, Clone Wars has a new one out, both on the internets and in the cluster of trailers now at a theatre near you.

"STAR WARS: THE CLONE WARS showcases an entirely new look and feel to the galaxy far, far away – combining the expansive scope of the Star Wars Saga with state-of-the-art computer-generated animation ..."

As a 17-year-old Star Wars freak I know said: "George Lucas is going to milk this thing for everything he can, isn't he?"

To which I replied: "But of course. How do you think George got to be a billionaire?"

Addendum:Variety has reviews for two animated features (once CGI, the other traditional) that likely won't be getting mega-wide releases. In other words, their indies:

... Combining elements of "Planet of the Apes" and "The Day the Earth Stood Still," "Terra" is also part inter-species "Romeo and Juliet" ... "Terra" isn't sugar-coated -- the humans are hardly paragons of virtue, but neither are the Terrareans. And the story's resolution won't make "Terra" the feel-good cartoon of 2008, although it is a work of art.

Then there is the pencil-driven project:

Good battles evil as a gun-running, booze-swilling, cigarette-puffing badass is dragged, kicking and screaming, toward salvation in Bill Plympton's slyly sardonic black comedy, his best animated feature to date. Closer in drawing style and mood to Plympton's award-winning shorts, with all their grungy metamorphic grotesquerie intact, "Idiots and Angels" may attract the larger arthouse auds that have thus far eluded Plympton in his feature forays. Its totally wordless corporeal pantomime is poised to widen his already considerable worldwide fan base.

Make the balance of the weekend joyous and productive.

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The Big B.O.

Iron Man knocks down another $15.3 million on a Friday eve to remain on top of the heap...

And Speed Racer lands with a dull ker-plunk in third place, no doubt a large disappointment to the heirs of all the brothers Warner ... but the audience apparently smells the same stinker the critics do and stays away in droves.

(Once again, Iron Man is the only Top Ten film to break through the 100 million bucks barrier) ...

Update: Rounding out the weekend: Even with a 49% drop, Iron Man collectes $50.5 million to remain king of the money hill, with a $177.1 million domestic total.

Remarkably, there are only two features in the Top Twenty sporting triple digits. There's Numero Uno, and then there is Horton Hears a Who at #14, and pretty near the end of its run. (The Seuss epic now stands at $150,669,000 domestic box office.)

Elsewhere in the derby, Speed Racer and What Happens in Vegas ended in a photo finish -- $20,210,000 for Racer and $20 million for the Cameron/Ashton comedy.

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Friday, May 09, 2008

At Film Roman

... which is what Starz Media is now calling their Hollywood Way Studio. They spent years down-playing the old name, now the company has reversed field.

This mean anything? Hmmm ...

In any event, I went through "The Simpsons" unit and the place -- usually jumping -- was mostly empty. Far more empty than I'd ever seen it before, startlingly empty. An artist in an office next to rows of un-artisted cubicles said:

"Thirty people got laid off last week. There's going to be more next week. I think there's only one show still going."

There's a simple reason for this. The voice actors have still not signed for another season.

"They keep telling us the actors will be signing this week. They've been tellins us that for at least a month. There's six scripts ready to be recorded, but no actors."

I opined that maybe the six actors -- now in a wrestling match with Fox -- are holding off so they can leverage the threat of the oncoming big actors strike. Like, "You don't come more our way, then we'll be into July, and nobody will be recording ... or filming ... or anything."

Not saying the boys and girls are doing this, but it's a strategy, you know?

Meanwhile, the King of the Hill unit awaits the return of its crew, allegedly scheduled for sometime in June.

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YOU MAY BE A WINNER!!!!*

* definitions of "winner" may not be valid in all states

Has anyone ever actually started a successful and sustained career in the animation business as a result of winning a contest? I don't know of any such person, although it's likely that someone, somewhere, can trace their ascension to the professional ranks of the business from winning a blue ribbon and a handshake for their early efforts.

In recent years contests have become big throughout the entertainment biz, whether it's American Idol and its many photocopies, or the 267 screenplay contests to be found here. And with that explosion has come an increase in complaints about exploitation of contestants and winners, and the problem of contest rules ignored by the very people who wrote them.

The most recent controversy has risen over the AniBOOM website's music video contest based on a Radiohead song. The rules for Round One of the contest required entrants to submit "new, original and unique" storyboards, and prohibited entrants from submitting copyrighted materials.

The Round One semifinalists were announced earlier this week, and some of the entrants, amateurs as well as professionals, were amazed to discover that at least three of the semifinalists had allegedly submitted re-edited clips of previously produced animation, at least one of which was allegedly made from material for which the animator editor did not hold the copyright. As one of the frustrated participants expressed in an e-mail to us:

... what has come to pass is that a site which claims to be devoted to the production of independent, cross-platform animation, has awarded semifinalist positions to at least four established industry professionals who did not create original animation, and submitted re-edit projects, as though the music in question was totally arbitrary.

And what is worse, is that even after promoting and advertising this contest heavily to amateurs and music fans, including television ads on Adult Swim, and after claiming that it's purpose was to not only build the site's community, but also encourage and develop submissions from aspiring unknowns - AniBOOM has awarded the meager $1,000 in funding for semifinalists to professionals to whom it will not in any way be substantial ...

There have been several threads on the AniBOOM site on the subject, one of which resulted in some responses from AniBOOM management [all verbatim]:

once again, i can't speak on thebehalf of others. the chosen movies are all great pieces of work, and so were most of the non winners of the first round. i don't want to keep om writing things that will not ease your mind.

we didn't answer nything about that movie [one of the semifinalists that used copyrighted material without permission], because right now there is nothing to say. the movie was chosen by the jury, and other people that were a very important voice in this contest so far, so if they will have something new to tell you, i'm sure they will [...]

your videos were kick ass, so it was hard to choose based on concepts. so we decided to just play it safe by funding videos that were already finished and made by people who already have production teams. round 2 due date is coming up, so just have faith that we will do the same thing once again, so waste your time working on a fully rendered animation this time.

The misspelled ramblings of the contest rep notwithstanding, neither the Guild nor this blog are taking any position on this particular controversy. To those of us not in the middle of it, it might seem like a tempest in a distant teapot.

But it does point to a real problem we have always had with animation contests. "Spec work" – work that is performed without pay on the promise of future compensation pending approval and/or funding – is a violation of our collective bargaining agreement. And at the end of the day, that's all these contests are – an excuse to solicit free work on the distant promise of compensation/glory/fairy dust. And believe me, in the real world $1,000 isn't much compensation for the amount of work this contest is demanding.

So maybe the issue isn't really whether these contests are being run fairly or whether rules are being changed in midstream, but whether the very premise of an animation contest – that $1,000 and 300 seconds of fame is sufficient compensation for the work that goes into these projects – is inherently unfair.

And as if organizing animation isn't hard enough, how in the name of Art Babbitt do you organize a contest?

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Thursday, May 08, 2008

Don't Bogart That Joint ...

Ah yess. As an earlier generation toked up before traipsing to the revival house to see the latest re-release of Fantasia (1940 version), there is now a new animated morsel for the hemp-cigarette set:

Some College Kids Say They Get High Before Watching "Yo Gabba Gabba!"

... "It makes sense that college-age kids would take interest in watching because there is a strong pop culture element to this show, and because we have popular bands that college-age students like on the show," said Jacobs in an e-mail to ABCNews.com.

Matthew Ingraham, a 21-year-old student at Washington's Everett Community College, told ABCNews.com that he loves "Yo Gabba Gabba!" for its "randomness."

Like, wow, man.

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Once More Around With SAG and the AMPTP

Tuesday night, before a TAG executive board meeting, I was on the phone with a reporter about the SAG and the AMPTP negotiations, then in progress.

"It doesn't look too good," he told me. "All my sources say the sides are still pretty far apart. SAG has backed off their original DVD proposal but it doesn't look like the deal's much closer.

"They'll probably break off negotiations tonight. AFTRA sits down for talks on Wednesday."

I observed that the AMPTP seemed to be using the same template they used with the WGA and the DGA: talk to one union, and when that doesn't go anywhere, talk to the second union that you get along with better, and try to reach a deal.

"If I were Nick Counter," I said, "that's what I'd do."

The problem I see for SAG is, they're going to get whipsawed by the done deals with all the other guilds, and they'll be under enormous pressure not to strike. (I know that the IA will be wildly unhappy if its members are thrown out of work again due to a second labor action. And the Motion Picture Industry Pension and Health Plan will once more take a hit.)

The reason I go on about this is a second strike, if it comes, will have a bigger impact on all animation artists, and so it's important to pay attention regarding what's going on. With that in mind, I found this Reuters interview with SAG topkick Alan Rosenberg worth reading:

Q: Does the break-off in negotiations make the potential for a strike a greater possibility than it was before?

A: "I really don't want to go there. I don't even want to entertain the thought of a strike at this moment. It's something I've always said was on the table. It's the one weapon a labor union has when they reach impasse. ... But I don't even want to think about, or talk about a strike until I'm convinced that we can't make progress in negotiations. I'm not at that point yet."

I'm not sure where the players are right now. A strike? No strike? With luck, the industry won't have to go through another job action.

With luck.

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