With Add Ons!
TP&TF's opening weekend launches, and Box Office Guru weighs in.
... [A]massing crowds for a traditional toon was no easy task but [Disney] has done it. Excitement is there, Disney princesses are loved by young girls, and the filmmakers delivered a solid and entertaining product. Appeal should be stronger with moms and daughters at first, but the boys may eventually follow.
The studio's brand name will be key here and with November's trio of kidpics now fading away, the time is right for Princess to dominate with this audience. The pic will keep hopping through the holiday weeks ahead and join the century club in no time. Landing in 3,434 theaters, The Princess and the Frog may debut with around $26M this weekend ...
I'm thinking the feature comes in higher, but I could be viewing reality through a rosy prism. (We'll find out soon enough.) ...
Add On: Entertainment Weekly sees Frog as a winner, but at a lower total.
1. The Princess and the Frog: $24 million
Two years ago Alvin and the Chipmunks opened in mid-December to an astounding $44 million — marking a high-point in box-office history for animated movies in December. It’s unlikely Princess and the Frog will nab such a large debut considering the word “Princess” is guaranteed to turn off half the kid movie-going population and the film is opening a little too early to win those families on opening weekend ...
Add On Too: As a commenter references, the Nikkster rolls out Friday numbers:
1. Princess And The Frog (Disney) Fri $7.5M [3,434 runs] Est Wkd $27M
2. The Blind Side (Warner Bros) Fri $4.5M [3,388] Est Wkd $14.5M
3. Invictus (Warner Bros) Fri $3M [2,125 runs] Est Wkd $10M
4. New Moon (Summit) Fri $2.5M [3,635 runs] Est Wkd $7.7M
5. A Christmas Carol (Disney) Fri $1.6M [2,402 runs] Est Wkd $6.5M
You will note that Christmas Carol continues to hang in (which most likely ends when Avatar takes over all the stereo screens.) But that pulls it up to the $125 million range.
Add On #3: The Nikkster summarizes Froggie's first wide weekend:
... [A]dd Friday's take of $7.1M and Saturday's of $10.6M for a $25M weekend -- about expected for hand-drawn 2-D animation these days with an A via CinemaScore. Disney said it was the biggest opening for an animated film released in December. Princess has two weeks before Fox’s Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel opens on Christmas Day.
I'm sure Dis Co. would have liked higher grosses on Weekend #1. Although the holiday weekend was higher than the blockbuster 2-D openings of the early nineties (Aladdin, for instance, went wide on November 25, 1992 with $19.3 million, but on a lot less screens.) I think that the Mouse will pursue a two-track production policy with animation from its Southern California studio: Lower budgeted hand-drawn offerings, higher budget CGI features. My prediction, anyway.
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45 comments:
I say 37 mil, I think it needs to make above 40 mil to be consider a hit. It has to do better than Chicken Little and Bolt number, or its going to get ugly.
Bolt only made 25 mil opening week. That should be fairly easy to beat.
I don't see why Frog must do better than Chicken Little (40 mil). It was made for much less than Chicken Little. MUCH less.
I think they are shooting for about 35 mil. I think 24 mil is a very low estimate. It may not do as well as they wish it would, but I think it will do respectably well (in the 30 to 35 mil range).
Nikke Finke is reporting that Frog will make $7.5 mil Friday, with a weekend estimate of $27 million.
Not terrible, but not incredibly spectacular either. Maybe even slightly disappointing.
Then again, positive word of mouth may push up that total by the end of the weekend.
I'm going with box office predictions from the-numbers.com. If the American public deserves any praise, the theater average should be above $10,000 for the weekend. According to their expectations that should help Tiana and Naveen reach at least $35. If it doesn't happen, I'm moving to Canada.
Princess is a bit overwhelming. Too bad. That's show biz.
Oops, sorry, UNDERWHELMING. My wishes overrode the facts. My bad.
It's about perception and I'm guessing Frog neeeds to finally end up at 180 to 200 million domestic (even more would obviously be better) to be perceived as a hit. I'm not sure 25million opening weekend will work, though if it can be #1 for a few weeks that would certainly help. It needs to do better than Bolt and also better than the last few Disney features (excluding Pixar features).
I'm surprised that the predictions for The Princess and the Frog are only $24 - 35 million. I would have said $40 million. But I suppose they are still trying to regain lost ground in terms of shining up the tarnished Disney Animation brand. The public goodwill that was there for Disney in the 80's and 90's will be difficult to recapture. But I think this movie takes a huge step in the right direction.
I thought they did an outstanding job with The Princess and the Frog and it deserves to do better than what has been predicted . I hope positive word-of-mouth pulls in more people next weekend and into the rest of the Christmas holidays as schools let out.
Expectations are not as high as everyone thinks. If Frog makes more than $300 million worldwide then the movie will be successful. That's what making a movie under budget will do for you. Bolt made just over $300 million so I think Frog should be able to pull that in.
If TP&TF collects $300+ million worldwide, then it ends all its runs well into the black.
It cost $105 million to make.
I dont think so and if so that is all in with p and a. we went to a 500 seat theater last night and it was sold out and the crowd loved and even clapped at the end.
There was *big* applause at the end in my theater too. That pleased me...
I was at a late show, too.
ERC says the film will end up with 25 million for the 3 day, plus with the limited engagements, that will total 28 million.
Not spectacular. And Alvin is looming on the horizon...
If Pixar, Dreamworks, and Blue Sky made 24 -27 mil opening weekend, that movie would be consider a flop. This is so sad. Disney can't seem to get a grip on animation these days.
The film looked great and the audience loved it. Congrats!
What's up with all the Thomas Kinkade designed films? Christmas Carol, Princess/Frog, Avatar, Lovely Bones...I'm sure there's a few others. Sad to see so little restraint in design these days.
24-27 million is very underwhelming, I'm afraid to say it, no matter how the data is analyzed. Didn't Disney's Atlantis open in the 30 million range? And wasn't that considered a flop? And let's no forget that Avatar is going to wipe out the box office next week. "But that's not a kiddie movie!" you may exclaim. That's what I initially thought too... until I saw the McDonald's toys yesturday.
Sadly, I agree.
This movie deserved a much better fate. Like Bolt. I'm getting tired of saying this about Disney animated movies.
We can't blame the marketing this time. They did a bang-up job promoting this thing. People just...didn't connect with it. For whatever reason.
The only thing great about this film was Charlotte character, it was beautifully animated in Disney tradition. They will have to mark this film as a lost.
Avatar will destroy it next week.
"Avatar will destroy it next week."
Avatar isn't who this film is aimed at. The Alvin and the Chipmunks sequel will be competition but not James Cameron's latest film.
Check your demos before you doom something.
The Charlotte character is the best excuse for Ritalin I've ever seen. Spastic, bluthian, and all over the map.
The Alligator wasn't much better, but I wouldn't have minded if he had a reason for being in the film in the first place.
"Check your demos before you doom something."
So... your prediction is Princess and the frog will be #1 again with a 25 mill result. Hmmm... you sound very reliable and smart.
Keep wishing to the star.
... I for one don't care about Avatar at all.
The problem with Avatar isn't just that it will dent "Princess" boxoffice with its demographic crossover (which it might).
The biggest problem is that ALL the media attention will be focused on Avatar. It will be a giant media black hole, and "Princess" will get lost in it. There will be no articles written, or interviews given, because all attention will be on Avatar.
So in addition to being a distant #2 (at best) next week, it will be out of peoples' minds. It's hard to build "legs" on that. These are just the realities, and why the release date was far from ideal.
"release date was far from ideal."
That excuse is getting old for Disney. How about judging the film for what it is. It's okay at best.
Who said it was an excuse, dummy?
I was pointing out the realities of why those who think Avatar won't have a huge impact are wrong. Putting Frog Princess a week away from Avatar was never a good idea, regardless of how good or bad a film it is.
Christmas Carol and Princess and the Frog should have swapped places. Put out the Christmas movie in December closer to Christmas, and release the Princess movie in early November when there was no other competition for children's movies.
I don't think you could actually could swap PATF and CC. Avatar will be eating up all the 3-D screens, leaving CC without a venue. It needed to go earlier to have a place at all. As for the timing on PATF... what WOULD have been a good time? Earlier and it would have been too close to 'New Moon'. Maybe sit in in the can a week or two more and let it come out after Avatar?
They should have saved it for Spring.
It is more of a springtime movie anyway
Actual numbers are in from BoxOfficeMojo.com.
Ok, the good news:
Princess and the Frog was No. 1 at the box-office for the weekend, far outstripping the second place film The Blind Side and the third place film Invictus
Not so good news:
Apparently not that many people were going to the movies this weekend , so Princess and the Frog "only" made $24.2 million over the three days from Dec. 11 - Dec. 13 . :- (
I think it really needed to do at least $35 million and preferably $40 million (or more) to have the hosannas ringing out that "2D is back!" . Well ... I think it's still "wait and see" after this weekend. (the movie will eventually make money over the long-run , like Bolt did, but this is not an auspicious opening, no way to get around it. This is disappointing.)
*gulp*
Let's hope it garners strong enough word-of-mouth that that the second weekend is better (once all the schools are out) and that it has strong legs through the rest of the Christmas holiday.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2009&wknd=50&p=.htm
Dec. 11 - 13 Weekend gross:
Princess and the Frog = $24,208,916
The Blind Side = $15,055,258
Invictus = $8,611,147
Praying that the second weekend is better than the first is pretty ridiculous.
I'm glad Disney is trying to put the best face on it they can ("no other animated film opening in Dec has done better"), but they had been hoping - and needing - 40 mill to be a hit.
It's still all about perception and that's why Disney is trying to twist the perception of it being a hit. At least with No 1 status they stand some chance of doing that - a very slim chnace.
You have to wonder if they weren't worried about Frog and that's why they only put into production a Pooh film instead of greenlighting the next 2D feature.
Why they returned to doing a musical proincess film is beyond me. Hadn't that well run dry already? Even the "At the Movies" Disney employees slammed it and said it felt like a DTV sequel than a feature. Like it or not princess films have become associated with DTVs.
I lay this one at Lasseter's feet. What did he think? He was going to start the 90's over with a new Little Mermaid? He even hired the same directors (despite their last two failures?) Was he planning on having Gary and Kurt do another film after the Pooh sequel?
Why didn't Lasseter let them make Up as a 2D feature? Or does he see 2D as only good for prioncess films?
" Was he planning on having Gary and Kurt do another film after the Pooh sequel?"
Hey, Mr. Animation Industry Insider Man:
It's Gary (Trousdale) and Kirk (Wise) , not "Gary and Kurt" .
I think the "second weekend" hopes aren't too absurd in this case, since that's when most kids' winter holidays will really kick off.
Sure, Avatar is going to dominate next weekend, but there's plenty of audience left over for PATF - especially if word of mouth proves good (and I think it will).
I know it's the way of the world, but the expectations game never fails to make me exceedingly angry. It has nothing to do with a film's actual success (or, obviously, merit) or even its eventual financial performance (does anyone really think that Disney isn't going to make money on this?!) but instead it's just about how well the film meets an arbitrarily-determined number over the period of a single weekend.
The bulk of PATF's audience isn't composed of college kids who'll go camp out in line and give a film a $500M opening weekend. It's an audience that's very dependent on parents taking kids to theaters, and parents are probably pretty busy right about now.
Then again, this is all just pure speculation on my part. And the new Chipmunk movie will come out and make a billion dollars on its first day, but I can't think about that or I'll go drink a bottle of Draino.
>>>" Was he planning on having Gary and Kurt do another film after the Pooh sequel?"
Hey, Mr. Animation Industry Insider Man:
It's Gary (Trousdale) and Kirk (Wise) , not "Gary and Kurt" ."<<<
BFD....I also spelled princess wrong a couple of times...so sue me. You obviously knew who I was talking about, right?
Still doesn't change anything I said or would you like to do a grammar check next, Mr. Animation blog name checker Man?
Avatar looks like a video game with a 300mil budget spending way too much money. I can only imagine what the Cameron dialogue will be like....ugh. Isn't this the same story as battle for terra or pocahontas or delgo with the floating mountains?
It should make a lot, it has lots of eye candy and will be theaters that charge 15 - 16.00 a pop. it definitely will secure our comic con geek squad colleagues.
I can only imagine what the Cameron dialogue will be like....ugh.
The only thing I can think of whenever I hear the words "James Cameron" or "Avatar" is Bill Paxton (with blond highlights and an earring, no less) groaning in breathy, faux earnestness:
"Are you ready to go back to Titanic?"
Style completely void of substance.
If I were in charge at Disney, I'd be paying more attention to how many Princess Tiana dolls and Louie stuffed plushes are selling at the Disney store. Thats where the real money is...
Is it true Elves has been shelved (and the next Tink DTV)?
hmmmm? i have heard some of this as well. any clarity?
I've heard the producer and directors were shown the door and the picture shelved.
And the latest Tink didn't do well enough to continue...maybe they should've stuck with the sequels...
"I think that the Mouse will pursue a two-track production policy with animation from its Southern California studio: Lower budgeted hand-drawn offerings, higher budget CGI features"
And this makes sense because ... Disney's CG movies since Lasseter took over , like Meet the Robinsons and Bolt, have made so much money so far compared to Disney's hand-drawn movies ? Huh ?
Bolt cost a lot more than Princess and the Frog, but it looks like in the long run that PATF numbers will track similar to Bolt , so it will make something in the $300 million range with the international box-office added on . But PATF cost less than Bolt (and WAY less than Meet the Robinsons) , so that's why the next hand-drawn movies at Disney should be saddled with the burden of being the poor Cinderella with lower budgets ?
Ok ...
Anonymous said: "So... your prediction is Princess and the frog will be #1 again with a 25 mill result. Hmmm... you sound very reliable and smart."
I realize that you can write, but I'm not sure you know how to read.
Where in my statement did I say ANYTHING about Frog being number one the next week? You've heard what happens when people assume, right? I was stating that Avatar is not the film that is in competition with Frog. To which anyone with a brain should go "Duh," but clearly you have trouble reading what's posted and instead find something to read between the lines.
I think Frog will likely be number too with strong family business now that the kiddies are out, but the dent to its box office will come next week with the Chipmunks? Are you clear now on what I said or does Steve have to install software that lets me draw it out for you?
Sigh..
That should be two, not too btw...
Sigh. That's what happens when you type quickly because you're not wanting to waste much time on people that don't pay attention to what you say and then form an opinion based on something in their own mind.
Finally saw it. A little nicer than I was expecting and my 15 year old daughter liked it a lot more than she expected as well.
Plotholes you could drive an 18 wheeler through, but not bad for a princess film.
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