Thursday, December 10, 2009

The Trades Handicap Film Openings

Variety analyzes TP&TF's prospects:

Box observers say "Princess," going out in 3,434 runs, has a strong shot at winning the weekend and toppling Warners' sleeper hit "The Blind Side," which topped the B.O. last weekend.

"Princess" has kids to itself for two weeks before 20th Century Fox's "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel" opens on Christmas Day. "Squeakuel" bows first in the U.K., where it unspools this weekend.

"Princess" opens day and date in a handful of markets, including Germany and Mexico ...

One of the Top Dogs on The Princess and the Frog told me he thought Avatar was going to squeeze Disney's hand-drawn epic a week after its wide opening, but I'm not so sure. J. Cameron might put a ding in the Princess's tiara, but Alvin (as in Alvin and the Chipmunks, the Squeakuel) might take a sizable chunk out of the crown.

Me, I'm thinking TP&TF has a $30-40 million opening weekend, and goes on to an "opening weekend times 4.3" total when all domestic moolah is raked in by the Big Mouse.

As always, my calculations could be off. Psychic, I am not.


Anonymous said...

If it does poorly (which I doubt it will), they cant blame marketing this time. Ive seen PATF stuff everywhere!

Michael said...

I have a feeling PATF is going to do insanely well. There seems to be so much pent-up anticipation... and so much buzz amongst "civilians", not just the fanboi community.

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