Saturday, May 29, 2010

End of May Derby

Now with Add Ons.

The Nikkster tells us the carnivorous Manhattan gals are #1, with the ogre #2. What else do we need to know?

1. Sex And the City 2 (NL/Warner Bros) NEW [3,445 Theaters] --Friday $13M, Estimated Weekend $53M, Estimated Cume $67M

2. Shrek Forever After (DWA/Paramount) Week 2 [4,367] -- Friday $11.3M, Estimated Weekend $50M, Estimated Cume $149M

3. Prince Of Persia (Disney) NEW [3,646] -- Friday $10.3M, Estimated Weekend $42M

4. Iron Man 2 (Marvel/Paramount) Week 4 [3,804] -- Friday $4.0M, Estimated Weekend $18.5M, Estimated Cume $277M

5. Robin Hood (Universal) Week 3 [3,373] -- Friday $2.8M, Estimated Weekend $12.5M, Estimated Cume $85M

If Shrek has a mere 28% drop, then I'm guesstimating it ends up with a $230-280 million domestic take by the end of its run (a multiple of approximately 4.) Of course, Toy Story 3 rolls out in a few weeks, and that will take a bite out of the ogre's 3-D screens and box office.

But that's the movie biz for you. Competitive.

Add On: Shrek IV remains at the top of a lacklustre heap, declining 38.8%, the second best hold in the Top Ten.

The ogre has now collected $133 million. Though it isn't performing up to DWA's (or Wall Street's) hopes and dreams, it's gonna end up a solid moneymaker.

Prince of Persia? Not so much. And Jake G. isn't going to be headlining any tent-pole franchises in the foreseeable future.

As the Mojo relates:

This Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to be the lowest-grossing in over a decade and the slowest in at least 15 years in terms of estimated attendance. Overall business was down around 20 percent from the same period last year. The simple reason for these doldrums is the movies themselves: an indifference-inspiring brew of tepid holdovers and non-event new releases.

Shrek Forever After won the weekend by default, not because it exhibited any particular strength. The animated sequel grossed an estimated $43.3 million Friday-to-Sunday, off 39 percent from its opening weekend. While that was a better hold than Shrek the Third, which fell 56 percent, it was a steeper drop than Shrek 2 (down 33 percent) and the first Shrek (which didn't drop).

My thinking: A weak Shrek 3 helped smother a better Shrek 4. But maybe the franchise is ready for retirement, yes?

Add On Too: Richard Corliss expounds on the ogre's good fortune:

... The winner among the losers was Shrek Forever After. The DreamWorks animated feature, which brought back Mike Myers' green ogre and the rest of his fairy-tale troupe for a fourth round, managed a four-day gross of $55.7 million in North American theaters, according to studio estimates. That's far less than the $70.8 million the movie earned in its opening three-day session last weekend, but it was enough to cream the competition ...

For Hollywood movers and shakers the Memorial Day weekend's grosses make bitter beach reading. Suddenly, after filling theaters at near-record levels throughout the Great Recession, filmgoers are getting picky. Let's see: they don't like big-budget original movies like Robin Hood and Prince of Persia — even Iron Man 2 got yawns from the tend of millions who saw it — and they're not crazy about sequels of gigantic hits, like the Shrek and Sex and the City follow-ups. What does that leave? ...

Beats me. something fresh and original?



Anonymous said...

So, Prince of Persia not a smart investment on Disney's part or will it be one of those "does better over-seas" sort of flicks?

And Robin Hood is holding up a lot better than I expected.

Anonymous said...

Robin hood is a lemon. Prince of persia looks weak and shrek was a disappointment. Hopefully the summer will get better.

Anonymous said...

Those look like massive bomb numbers for Prince of Persia. That's the kind of movie that's supposed to make at least $70 mil opening weekend, because they always drop precipitously thereafter. At this point, I doubt it will make a profit unless international does incredibly well.

Pundit chatter aside, the truth is that Shrek 4 will make very large profits for Dreamworks. In the end, that's really all that matters.

Anonymous said...

International box office for Persia isn't too good either. It appears to be a bona fide flop.

Well, at least Disney has Toy Story 3 to look forward to...

Anonymous said...

It's the Friday numbers: NEVER judge a kids-marketed movie till the Saturday and Sunday business.
Not that we should expect a sudden turnaround--the source material isn't as well known in the mainstream, and the public still considers it "poor-man's Pirates"--but a lot of fourth-place Disney openings never stay there by the final weekend results.
And chick-flicks never take #1 unless something's wrong with the expected front-runner...Shrek included.

Anonymous said...

Looks like Shrek4 is going to get the top spot after all. PoP is still another huge Disney disappointment.

Locall said...

Shrek shrunk 39% percent from last week, with a 43 million weekend, and is now probably set to be the lowest grossing//attended Shrek in te series, despite the higher ticket pricess for 3D,
still it should do well, but Shrek is officially over :)

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