Saturday, December 11, 2010

Your Pre-Holiday Box Office

Now with peppermint Add On.

Tangled declines to #3 as the Derby wends its way toward Christmas:

1. Chronicles Of Narnia/Voyage Of Dawn Teader 3D (Fox) NEW [3,555 Theaters] -- Friday $9M, Estimated Weekend $28M

2. The Tourist (GK Films/Sony) NEW [2,756 Theaters] -- Friday $6.5M, Estimated Weekend $18.5M

3. Tangled (Disney) Week 3 [3,565 Theaters] -- Friday $3.4M, Estimated Weekend $14.5M, Cume $115.5M

4. Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Pt 1 (Warner Bros) Week 4 [3,577 Theaters] -- Friday $2.3M, Estimated Weekend $8.5M, Cume $257.7M

5. Unstoppable (Fox) Week 5 [2,967 Theaters] -- Friday $1.1M, Estimated Weekend $3.8M, Cume $74.2M

6. Burlesque (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 3 -- Friday $1M, Estimated Weekend $3.2M, Estimated Cume $32.7M

7. Love And Other Drugs (Fox) Week 3 -- Friday $1M, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $27.6M

8. Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Week 2 [90 Theaters] -- Friday $925K, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $5.3M

9. Due Date (Warner Bros) Week 6 -- Friday $825K, Estimated Weekend $2.5M, Estimated Cume $94.8M

10. Megamind 3D (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) Week 7 -- Friday $775K, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $140.8M

Megamind clings to the list at #10. Industry analysts predict it will end its domestic run in the $150-$160 million range. If so, it will be under a multiple of four against its opening weekend. (Perhaps it hurts to be the second animated Bad Guy film out of the box with sidekick called "Minion.")

Add On: The Mojo gives us semi-final tallies for the weekend, where Tangled has the best hold of any Top Ten movie (down 32.6%) and a $115.6 million total after three weeks.

Down at #10 in its 6th week, Megamind loses 748 theatres, drops 49.2%, and now stands with an accumulation of $140.2 million.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

With Narnia 3D flopping, Tangled is getting stronger at the box office.

Volus Jones said...

Tangled has already passed the total domestic box office of The Princess and the Frog, so it's doing pretty well, I think.

Considering that international is where it'll see most of it's money, this film could easily see over 300 million final theatrical take. All before DVD/Blu-Ray, Cable and pay-per-view.

A nice little fairy tale for the company and its animators.

Anonymous said...

Megamind is kind of in an odd situation. It's had fairly good legs overall (still in the top ten after almost a month) but it's just not bringing in much money total. Curiously, Unstoppable is doing the same thing on the live action side. It's interesting how these films are bringing in consistent, but unusually tiny, sums over a long period.

I'm starting to think that the holiday movie season just isn't as lucrative as it used to be. Aside from things like Harry Potter, which would be successful no matter what time of year it was released, movies seem to be having a tough time making blockbuster sales at this time of year. And then the DVD/Blu-ray for a holiday movie will come out in Feb or so, which is the slowest sales quarter of the year for almost every industry. If a film doesn't hit the jackpot, which it probably won't, the timing almost guarantees that it will underperform both in theaters and on home video.

How well Tangled does over the next few weeks will depend on how Tron and Yogi Bear perform (Tron in particular is tracking poorly). If audiences reject everything else, Tangled is in a position to keep raking in money over the entire holiday season.

Anonymous said...

Tangled is getting stronger at the box office.

A 56% drop, followed by a 33% drop, counts as 'getting stronger'? Despicable Me dropped 42%, then 28%. How to Train Your Dragon dropped 34% and then 14%. They all got weaker week by week, but the key is how quickly they weakened. Tangled is doing okay, but it's not showing itself to have super strong 'legs.'

Anonymous said...

With Narnia 3D flopping, Tangled is getting stronger at the box office.

A) You're looking at Friday numbers, Rupert, ;)
and
B) Anyone want to remember which movie opened at this same weekend last year?

(I repeat: The traditionally worst weekend in the entire year to open family movies, and that's BEFORE we have the more accurate family weekend-business numbers to judge by.)

g said...

Tangled will see a surge at Christmas, just like Toy Story 2 did...

Anonymous said...

Yeah, this is tracking almost 1:1 with Toy Story 2, in terms of percentage dropped, week to week. TS2's 3rd Friday brought in 4.1, for an 18 million Fri-Sunday, 3rd place for that weekend behind The Green Mile and Stuart Little.

Very normal numbers. But the above colorful commentary about gloom and doom for Disney or the holiday movie season in general is more fun to read, isnt it

Anonymous said...

Dude, Narina 1 opened in the same time frame as the third one in 2005 and it opened with 23 millions on friday, then the second one opened in summer of 2008 with 19 millions, and now the third one is opening with just 8 millions.

That my friend, is a BIG FLOP for a franchise like Narnia.

And dont worry, Tangled will do just fine at the Box Office, christmas vacation will help a lot.

Anonymous said...

Let's look at the #1 B.O. weekends for Week #49 of the last five years:
- 2006: Pursuit of Happyness, $26M
- 2007: The Golden Compass, $25.7M
- 2008: The Day the Earth Stood Still, $30M
- 2009: The Princess & the Frog, $24M

(I know we've been saying it for a solid year, but y'know?...Call me paranoid, but maybe it's just NOT a weekend people go to movies??)

Anonymous said...

According to Box Office Mojo, this weekend is actually the number 50, not 49.

Anonymous said...

A 56% drop, followed by a 33% drop, counts as 'getting stronger'? Despicable Me dropped 42%, then 28%. How to Train Your Dragon dropped 34% and then 14%. They all got weaker week by week, but the key is how quickly they weakened. Tangled is doing okay, but it's not showing itself to have super strong 'legs.'

You do know that Holiday weekends work differently than the March or Summer weekends, right? The weekend after Thanksgiving is typically has some of the worst drops. Check how badly the other movies dropped that same weekend and you'll see that Tangled had one of the better drops from the holdovers.

Tangled is performing well and is stabilizing.

Anonymous said...

Wow, just like last week, here we are arguing about FRIDAY numbers.

Kids movie. Friday numbers aren't the whole picture. Didn't we just go through this last week?

All the Chicken Littles are back. GEEEE.... didn't we learn our lessons?

Anonymous said...

You do know that Holiday weekends work differently than the March or Summer weekends, right?

You miss the point. People are estimating how well Tangled will do overall, and that can be predicted by how rapidly its boxoffice falls. Not how rapidly it falls relative to other films out at the same time, but how rapidly it falls relative to its opening weekend. With a $48 million opening, it would show that it had good 'legs' if it made around $200 million domestically, and anything over $200 million would show great word of mouth. The box office trajectory for Tangled isn't consistent with that. It looks like it will do about average for a big-budget animated feature.

You also misrepresent the boxoffice potential of March release dates (traditionally not considered a great time to open films) and holiday weekends (typically considered a great time to open films). If you look at the list of all-time successful animated features, you'll see some very high ranking films that opened in November and went on to take in well over $200 million.

And to the dope who thinks that how a film does on Friday doesn't predict with good accuracy how it will do for the entire weekend, you haven't been playing this game long, have you?

Anonymous said...

I love how anyone who has realistic predictions about animated movies gets labeled as a "chicken little". Sure, go ahead and convince yourself that Tangled will take in 300 mill. That way you can be shocked when the dust clears and Disney declares it an underperformer.

The point of analyzing box office performance is to get an idea of how well the movie is doing, how much money it might make in the long run, and how its performance will affect future movies. It has nothing to do with optimism or pessimism, it's just simple math.

Tangled is doing well. Better than expected, in fact. But it's not a huge blockbuster. This isn't chicken littlism, it's just reality.

Anonymous said...

Box Office Fun Fact: As of this weekend, Tangled has made $115 million, outgrossing the last three flicks from Lasseter's regime: Meet the Robinsons ($98 million), Bolt ($114 million), and The Princess and the Frog ($104 million).

Anonymous said...

You miss the point. People are estimating how well Tangled will do overall, and that can be predicted by how rapidly its boxoffice falls...


So - when Tangled has the typical amazing holds over Christmas Holiday weekends, can we compare those to Despicable Me and How To Train Your Dragon's similar weekend and say how FRIGGIN AWESOME Tangled really is compared to them?

No, right? Because you completely missed the point of the post. The person was comparing Tangled's drops to How to Train Your Dragon and Despicable Me. The point wasn't to say Tangled's drops were really great, it was to say you can't compare it to those and say "OMG IT'S DROPPING LIKE A ROCK COMPARED TO THE OTHER TWO." They have different release dates, different holidays surrounding it, different patterns to consider.

If you want to really compare its drops to other movies, compare it to Bee Movie, Madagascar 2, Bolt, Princess and the Frog, Enchanted, and other movies that have been released during the holidays.

If you look at the list of all-time successful animated features, you'll see some very high ranking films that opened in November and went on to take in well over $200 million.

Name them. Better yet, compare them starting from the weekend of thanksgiving to get a better sense of how movies typically perform. Then lets compare legs. Here's the link: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=animation.htm

Go ahead and check the weekends after thanksgiving for movies like The Incredibles and all the $200m+ achievers in November, then let's talk.

Anonymous said...

So - when Tangled has the typical amazing holds over Christmas Holiday weekends, can we compare those to Despicable Me and How To Train Your Dragon's similar weekend and say how FRIGGIN AWESOME Tangled really is compared to them?

You've got a deal. Let's check back in a month, and see how close Tangled is to surpassing $200 million. Toy Story 2 at this point had $140 million, and went on to make another $105 million based on excellent 'legs.' Happy Feet was at $138 million and went on to collect another $60 million. If you're correct, and Tangled performs that well, then by early January it will be between $180-200 million, and still going gangbusters towards a total domestic gross of comfortably over $200 million. My prediction is that, unlike those movies, it will be well below that, and not get near $200 million.

I frankly hope you're right, but I'm not seeing the excitement for this movie that I saw for Happy Feet and Toy Story 2. Toy Story 2 made 4.3 times its opening weekend. Happy Feet made 4.7 times its opening weekend. A final multiple somewhere in that range will tell us if you're right or not.

Justin said...

Tangled currently is tracking very closely to Toy Story 2 in terms of percentage drops, but at about 82% of Toy Story 2's domestic gross. If Tangled continues to track with Toy Story 2 that will leave Tangled right around the $200 million mark. Tack on another $200 million foreign gross and Tangled will likely make $400+ worldwide when all is said and done. Sounds like a success to me.

NakedEmperor said...

Look, the dollar is about to collapse, the TSA is graving your genitals at the airports and soon at a bus station near you...Big sister is at wall-mart like this was 1984 and here we are talking about how much money giant corporations are making while they are selling this country away. It's time to get this country back so we can still do and enjoy animation!

Anonymous said...

the TSA is graving your genitals at the airports

Do they put them in a little casket and bury them with a little headstone? If so, I think the government has gone just about far enough, thank you very much.

Anonymous said...

@NakedEmperor

Back from who? Im being dead serious.

NakedEmperor said...

Who do you think I mean? The Gays, the Blacks, the Jews, and the Commie Liberals. Anyone that isn't a right wing nut job and devoted follower of Beck and Rush like me!!!

Mionale said...

@ Fake NakedEmperor

Ok,Have fun playing your left and right paradigm...one day you'll wake up and pay with a trillion dollars bill just like in Zimbabwe.

Anonymous said...

Im still awaiting my answer...

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