Social Media Tea Leaves

As we roll into HTTYD2's first day of release:

Social[Media STATS] suggests there is huge interest in "How To Train Your Dragon 2" as it'ss chalked up a massive 60 million trailer views with a very impressive 0.50% Buzz, ahead of “Frozen” and this year’s biggest animated movie so far “The Lego Movie” which opened to $64 million with 36.4 million trailer views. This can also be attributed to the fantastic visuals of the franchise, which helped make the first movie such a hit with moviegoers. This aspect has also been brought to the fore via a longform Buzzfeed article showcasing the impressive 3D used in the movies.

Word of mouth is key for family titles and as such a lot of the online campaign has focused around interesting and engaging parents, with clips being released with Yahoo! Movies which has an older audience. Twitter has been used to reach out to parents, in particular moms who are key decision makers for family titles. Parental advisors and mommy bloggers hosted a #HTTYD2chat and re-tweeted features through parenting advice channels. This chat drove over 7,000 Tweets from moms during release week. Overall “Dragon” chatter is on a par with “Lego” which drove 98,000 tweets, and ahead of “Mr.Peabody” which opened to $32 million with 27,000 Tweets. Twitter and Instagram also featured a #spottoothless hashtag competition for fans, and the official site hosts an in-depth dragonpedia for kids and parents alike, appealing to anyone who enjoyed the first movie.

Search is a good indicator of intent among older audiences and “Dragon” is up with the 126,000 of “Lego,” but below the 155,000 searches of Disney’s blockbuster “Frozen.” “Dragons’” massive trailer count — well ahead of “Lego” and “Frozen” — counts in its favor, but it seems Hiccup will fly below the close to $70 million totals of these movies. ...

Around about now, the trades will be weighing in on which new release comes out on top for the weekend. Methinks Dragon will nose close to $70 mill.

Soon enough we'll discover if I'm thinking wishfully.

Add On: Okay, maybe over-optimistic by a teensy bit:

... Matinees for How to Train to Dragon 2 are performing very well today, and estimates now look like Dragon [will be] pulling in maybe $21M tonight for a $58M-$60M weekend. ...