The L.A. Times speculates on howShrek Forever After will perform:
... People who have seen pre-release audience surveys say the CGI animated sequel — which features the voices of Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz and Eddie Murphy — will probably sell about $90 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada this weekend. ...
DreamWorks Animation stock has fallen 4% this week as word has spread on Wall Street about the movie's expected opening. ...
Paramount is also expecting that, like the last two "Shrek" movies, "Forever After" will sell close to $500 million worth of tickets overseas. ... The only other movie opening domestically this weekend is "MacGruber,"
Call me starry-eyed, but I think the feature could beat expectations. Yeah, I'm an animation rah-rah, but I have a bit of knowledge here.
I saw Shrek's competition tonight, the live-action MacGruber. I lasted about a half-hour before exiting the theatre. It's unfunny, clunky, and devoid of punch. The local papers say it didn't cost much to make, and I believe it. Very little shows up on the screen.
Which means there won't be much in the way of alternatives to the big green ogre this weekend. But I guess we'll see.
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17 comments:
I guess it all comes down to whether or not audiences are tired of the green ogre. I know I am, so I won't be spending any money this weekend at the box office.
I think MacGruber is a specific type of Comedy, it won't be appealing to the wider Audience, but that doesn't mean it won't do well. Never Underestimate the power of a SNL character showing up on the big screen.
Maybe Iron Man will continue, or Robin Hood. Who knows.
Pssst...more SNL characters have BOMBED big time on the screen then have been even remotely successful. It's amazing they continue to try. As for Shrek4 , my wife said she hasn't looked forward to a film this much in awhile (which actually surprised me).
Thes characters are really beloved (outside of the obnoxious animation community - yeah, I'm talking about you Amid!)
Even a weak Shrek film (3) was a huge hit.
That flood of SNL characters we had before was a private deal between Lorne Michaels and Paramount, to try and get some of his stable stars sold off into NBC sitcoms...Don't worry, that's over with. This one's just a rogue anomaly. ;)
And I've never credited mainstream fans with any actual taste for distinguishing one Shrek film from another (I'm still convinced the first's success was just feeding off the social frenzy at the time)--But from what I hear, the series did take a black eye from losing Andrew Adamson to "real" CGI movies. Audiences still go to the opening weekend out of tradition, but find they can't bring the "old days" back.
I'm not much of a Shrek fan, and I work for one of their competitors, but I still hope it does well.
But please (seriously) let it be the last one (for the artists sake)
I don't think you understand what is in the best interests of the animators. If S4 is a hit and generates more work because of it - that is in the best interests of the animators.
And once again, for all of you who hate Shrek, don't confuse your jaded, Pixar/Disney fanboy, hater of all things DW for what the public likes and doesn't like. Shrek is clearly a fan favorite and that is who DW is making the films for.
Films would make very little money if they made them only to please you. If anything you might want to start recognizing your tastes (and probably those that you go to lunch and have your bitchy little critiques with) don't match what the publics.
I AM an animator, and I know animators hate working on sequels, especially Shrek ones.
Please re-read my post, I wasnt dogging Shrek, and I wish it success. I just want that success to make more movies like Dragon not Shrek 5
"the first's success was just feeding off the social frenzy at the time"
What does gibberish like this even mean? I know debates about how something as horrible as the Shrek movies can be popular is a endlessly engaging exercise in navel gazing, but the Shrek movies are popular in the same way the Ice Age and Transformers movies are popular. They may not make you forget Citizen Kane, but they hit the wide audience's sweet spot for entertainment.
Here's some bold predictions. Animation insiders will hate Shrek 4 without even seeing it. The general audience will make it one of the biggest hits of the year. Many animators (not at DreamWorks) and critics will piss and moan about this. Many animators (at DreamWorks) will smile and enjoy their careers.
@ Yahweh.
You must be confused, because no one here has dogged Shrek yet. We all agree the first movie was a great success, and we all agree that we wish this new film success. But I love how you immediately go to the Pixar/Disney haters as if there is only one side to blame. Head on over to Rotten Tomatoes, almost every review positive or negative talks about how tired the series is and how Dreamworks needs to put these characters to rest.
When it comes to sequels vs. originals. I think we can all agree we'd prefer something original. eg, How to Train Your Dragon, Princess and the Frog, Up.
I don't think anyones argument is whether Shrek 4 will do well or not. It probably will. The argument is when to retire the mighty Ogre from his movie career. 4 movies later and it still earns a good buck and the public still likes the movies. That's great. But from an artistic perspective, I would prefer seeing something more original rather then the same Character I've seen for the last 10 years.
None the less, I wish it success.
I want all animated movies to do great business. I'm a working animator with mouths to feed.
My point - and you failed to acknowledge it - is that animators care less about working on Shrek and working on something 'fresh', but more about working.
AND BTW critics on RT can be and are every bit the fanboy/Pixar lover/DW hater as some of you. Most critics also don't have a clue what the public enjoys.
"the first's success was just feeding off the social frenzy at the time"
What does gibberish like this even mean?
It MEANS...that the first Shrek came out in '01, when the Roy Disney "SaveDisney.com" riots were just starting to catch hold with an angry-mob public--
Who were all ready, willing and able to lap up Jeff's corporate-snipe softsoaping of "Disney = Corny fairytales"...Read some of the reviews at the time, most audiences took--literally--ANY fairytale gag in the first movie as "a long-awaited slam at the Mouse", unquote, whether it resembled the original iconography or not, or even whether Disney had actually done that story.
Me, I counted exactly six specifically Disney-related "slams" in the entire movie (mostly outdated 60's jokes about Disneyland), but rabid fans of the movie seemed to be looking for a lot more, and "found" them.
Nowadays, with all the anti-Eisner fervor gone and forgotten, first-movie fans seem to be saying "Gee, the newer movies just aren't as funny or satirical as the first one--Now they're all suddenly lame and sitcom...What happened?"
Gee, I can't imagine. ;)
when the Roy Disney "SaveDisney.com" riots were just starting to catch hold with an angry-mob public
Wow, do you honestly believe most of the movie-going public were even aware of the 'Save Disney' effort, and that people go to see movies to express displeasure at rival corporations? Really?
And by the way, there's a lot of talk here about how people loved the first one, and weren't as enthralled with the rest. The second one was much better reviewed, and a much bigger success. The third one stank on ice, yet still the public voted with their ticket buying-they like these characters, and wanted to see more. Critics and fanboys may want variety, but the general audiences loves their franchises. That's why Pixar is on the sequel express.
"AND BTW critics on RT can be and are every bit the fanboy/Pixar lover/DW hater as some of you. Most critics also don't have a clue what the public enjoys."
And they can be Pixar/Disney haters, Dreamworks lovers, Racists, Lovers, Art fanatics, Low life scums or stand up people.
The public enjoys a various amount of things. Some love comedy, some love drama, some love Dreamworks films, some love Pixar, some love both, some hate all Animation. Hell, some outright hate all typed of media.
You're the only one bringing up the Pixar vs, Dreamworks debate. We're talking about Shrek, whether it will do well or not. Stop taking and making things so personal.
Must every story/piece of news about Disney/Pixar or Dreamworks lead into a stupid debate between the two studios.
Sick of it.
yeah, how silly of anyone to assume there's a predisposed response on this board towards anything DW does that stems from an unsettling love of eveything Pixar or Disney. that would be like assuming that Amid at Cartoon Brew hated everything by DW....oh, wait...
The estimates are around $70 million for the weekend. That's far below Wall Street's estimates. I wonder how much their stock will fall next week? Could it be that the general public is finally starting to tire a little of the Shrek franchise? Maybe it is a good thing that this will be the last Shrek film and they didn't pursue their original plans to make 7 films.
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