Friday, May 18, 2007

SMH Capital Analyzes DreamWorks Animation's New Release

Our old friends at SMH Capital have now sat down with their green eyeshades and focused their laser-like vision on the latest Shrek feature. Here's their analysis from "Morning Notes":

“Shrek 3” Opens Today

• Today DWA will release the third installment of its most valuable franchise, on 4,125 screens. Based on that screen count, we believe the film will open within a range of $95 million - $110 million. Our sense of the marketplace is that the film needs to clear at least $80 million in order not to see meaningful downside pressure come Monday morning.

• Our global box office expectation for “Shrek 3” remains $750 million, which is the simple average between global box office scores for the first two “Shrek” films plus the effects of ticket price inflation and screen count increases overseas.

• One angle that we do not believe is being fully appreciated by the Street is that of “participations.” Bonus payouts to the principal actors in this film will likely total 10% - 14% of global box office, depending on ultimate performance. Therefore, DWA’s revenue recognition schedule on this film will be total box office minus the “net rental,” the 8% distribution fee, P&A, and participations...

You'll note that SMH Capital touches on an issue about which Kevin Koch blogged a little while back.

Great analytic minds think alike.


Anonymous said...

Regardless Shrek is well on the way to a 100 Million open. thats a huge opening compared to what we've seen from other recent animated films.

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