Scott Mendelson of the Huffington Post dies hard:
Why "Toy Story 3" Still Deserves to Win Best Picture on Sunday
... [T]hree cheers for Disney for going after the big prize. There is certainly a risk, as voters may think that "Toy Story 3" has a shot at Best Picture and vote for (the terrific) "How to Train Your Dragon" for Best Animated Film. It would be nice for for Oscars to actually award the Best Picture trophy to the actual best film of the year more than once or twice a decade. ...
I think TS3 would be an honorable recipient of the "Best Picture" Academy Award, but I wouldn't consider it the best. I think How to Train Your Dragon deserves that particular nod. Of course, Dragon wasn't nominated for "Best Picture." It got roped into the "Animated" category, and anyone with half a brain knows that the Disney/Pixar offering -- which is a fine picture, don't get me wrong -- has that slot sewn up.
But nobody should get their underclothes in a knot about this inevitable, upcoming win. The Academy Awards are about marketing and adding to the gross, not about "Best." It pretty much boils down the same kinds of pictures every year. The actor who plays a character who's alcoholic or addled walks away with thesping trophy. The gaudiest, most razzle dazzle special effects usually take that prize, and the "Best Picture" award either goes to the big blockbuster (Titanic, Gone With the Wind) or the smaller, art-house feature that's politically correct.
It rarely varies from that formula; I seriously doubt it will be different this year. (And congratulations in advance to Toy Story 3 for taking the "Best Animated Feature" Oscar.)