Saturday, June 17, 2006

Weekend B.O.

The Friday estimates are in, and Nacho Libre is out of the gate first, with $11 million, followed by 3 Fast 3 Furious at 9.25 mill and Cars in third at $9 million... Boxofficemojo forecasts that Cars will end up number one by the end of the weekend, and I think that's likely, though I suspect Nacho Libre may be closer than they predict. Overall it looks like the Pixar film is headed for about a 45% drop from its opening weekend, which would be a larger falloff than the last three of their films. Over the Hedge is now in tenth place ($1.24 million on Friday), having lost about 1000 theaters to the new releases. We'll add updates as the weekend continues. UPDATE: Cars indeed scored another first place in the weekend race, nabbing an estimated $31.2 million for a 48% drop and a $114.5 million total. That's larger that the second weekend drop-off for Monsters Inc (-27.2%), The Incredibles (-28.7%), and Finding Nemo (-33.7%). Over the Hedge fell 29.6% in its sophomore session, while Ice Age 2 sank a full 50.3%. Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties was seventh in it's opening weekend, coughing up a$7.2 million hairball -- about a third of the original's opening of $21.7 million, and less than half of the Boxofficemojo forecast. Hedge finished 10th, with another $4 million, bring it's domestic cume to $138,755,000 (moving it past Chicken Little, Dinosaur, and Robots on the CG animation charts). What's especially noteworthy is that at this moment three of the top six films of the year (domestic) are fully animated. In about a week, we'll be able to say 3 of the top 5. FINAL UPDATE: The actuals are in, and Cars did better than the estimate, scoring $33.7 million for a 43.9% drop (and a total of $117.1 million). It was number one by over $5 million. Not a bad second lap. Garfield 2 little changed at 7th and $7.29 million, and Over the Hedge was 10th with $4.34 million and a$139.0 million total. Ice Age 2 is still in the top 20, bagging 17th and $361,739, for a total of $192.8 million. Can they keep it in theaters until it passes Madagascar's $193.6 million?


Steve Hulett said...

My fifteen-year-old has been yammering at me that he wants to see "Nacho Libre."

Jack Black is a powerful force, I think.

Anonymous said...

So are you annoyed Kevin that Cars ended up winning the weekend box office? I know you are the president and all but you really seem like you want to see Pixar fail.

Kevin Koch said...

I'm confused by your comment. Did I write something that was anti-Pixar? What I intended to do was give some information that put the numbers in some meaningful context.

If you go back about 10 days, you'll find a post where I thought Cars would far surpass the opening of the previous Pixar films. I wasn't cheering for the film then -- I just had a hunch that it would be a much bigger hit in the midwest and south than most people suspected. And I'm not slagging the film now. It's a huge success. I'm just trying to put the success in context.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Kevin, I guess I have just read too many of your posts over the last few years on Animation Nation and took them to heart. If you want to keep up the charade that you are being level headed who am I to try to turn you around.

Steve Hulett said...

Regardless of Animation Nation, the above seems like plain old fact to me: "Cars" and "Ice Age 2" had roughly equivalent openings...and pretty equal declines in their second weekends.

Not to worry, though. Both are going to make loads of money for their respective conglomerates.

Kevin Koch said...

If you can show me posts on AN where I've wanted Pixar to fail, I'd be interested in seeing them. The fact that I've adored and admired most Pixar movies (both Toy Story's, Incredibles, Nemo) and thought a couple were just okay (Bugs Life, Cars) hardly constitutes wanting the studio to fail. Pixar has consistently set the bar for the other feature studios, but frankly it's a bar that they themselves don't always top. That's just the nature of the creative process.

Anonymous said...

I'm a new "anonymous." I respectfully disagree with Kivin in his assesment of "Cars" vis-a-vis other Pixar releases. I saw it this weekend and I believe it ranks with their best work. The story is tight , the pacing is consistant and lively, the many characters are interesting, fun and woven beatifully into the story . The acting is tasteful and precise and Newman's Hudson character gives the story a gravitas that balances nicely with the humor. The design and effects are, as usual, superior.

I think word of mouth will give this film legs that will surprise everyone.

I remember how the discussion started, with some stupid statement by an investment handicapper, who expressed and opinion and point of view that is, unfortunately, all too often reflected in the press;
that, although live action films are seen and reviewed as individual products, which sink or swim on their own without reflecting on the medium, animation is seen as a genre or trend, like westerns or detective movies.

When will that end?

Kevin Koch said...

I think our constantly pointing it out will help it end. I remember when the press consistently stated that CG films were faster and cheaper than hand-drawn films. Heck, that's what they were being told by some of the producers! But a lot of us made the point again and again that it wasn't true, that in fact it was easy to demonstrate with the studio's own data that it was false, and now you don't hear that nonsense anymore.

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