Friday, November 06, 2009

Box Office Prognostications

Leave it to Moviephone to beat around the bush:

Disney's A Christmas Carol' cost upwards of $150 million to make and will earn that back and a lot more.

Unlike your ordinary blockbuster, early Christmas movies tend to play well through the holiday itself. Add the appeal of Jim Carrey, in the multiple roles of Scrooge and the three ghosts, and the appeal to parents of the Disney label and you have a movie for every demographic.

Opening domestically in more than 3,500 theaters -- in flat, 3D and IMAX 3D formats -- the movie should gross more than $40 million this weekend and top $200 million by the end of the year ...

The Hollywood Reporter comes to the same conclusion:

Disney executives believe the PG-rated "Carol" will play strongly well past Turkey Day. Zemeckis' success with his first animated holiday outing -- 2004's "The Polar Express," a $305 million worldwide grosser for Warner Bros. -- has helped Disney rally exhibitor support for his latest seasonal venture, Disney distribution president Chuck Viane said.

"The exhibitors have been looking at Bob Zemeckis' track record, and they're saying, 'I have to have this,' " Viane said. "It's not just a kids movie. It should be a four-quadrant picture for everybody." ...

"Carol" should top the weekend rankings easily with a first-frame tally in the $35 million-$45 million range ...

My bet is that the stereo versions of the film will be SRO, with the flat-screen versions playing somewhat less strongly.

If Carol hits $40 million or above, champagne will flow on Buena Vista Street.


Anonymous said...

Forget Buena Vista Street, they have plenty to rely on over the next few quarters. It's those guys in hangars up in Novato that will be celebrating!

Anonymous said...

Celebrating WHAT? It's a terrible movie, and devoid of any artistic merit on any level. That doesn't mean the folks who worked on the film aren't talented, but the film works hard to rob the audience of anything other than sheer boredom and a visual assault bordering on torture.

It's an awful experience, one which I hope many people don't have the displeasure of viewing.

Bah Humbug to this Mo-Crapfest said...

As depressing as it is for me to think about it , the Zemeckis/Disney Carol will probably do quite well at the box-office for the same reason Thomas Kinkade sells a lot of plates, calendars, and giclee prints.

I don't usually actively want anyone's movie to fail -- some I don't give a rip one way or the other -- , but this one I actually would be happy to see go down in flames.

Anonymous said...

Put me down as somebody who enjoyed it. I found the 3-D immersive. Scrooge came across.

OTOH, I can understand why people would find it off-putting, some of the supporting characters seem like wax-work figures, and the story has been done to death.

I'll be interested to see how it performs. The theater I saw it in tonight was a long way from full.

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