Monday, May 23, 2011

Back of Envelope Prediction

Of course there are all kinds of forecasts about what the Big Panda will collect in box office revenue, but we'll do a few calculations of our own ...

Kung Fu Panda 2 is (thus far) getting solid reviews. The want-to-see quotient is high. And the first one pulled down big numbers. (KFP the first had a worldwide gross of $631.7 million.)

So if we make the (relatively) safe assumptions that quality sequels collect more revenue than the originals, we'll calculate that KFP2 will earn:

$750,000,000 - $990,000,000

I could imagine the film breaking the billion dollar mark (though given the summer competition, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.) But I can't see it taking in much below $750 million. The Hangover is going to cannibalize a minimal number of Panda tickets, and both films will open big domestically, with KFP2 ultimately doing a multiplier of 4+ of its opening weekend.

Now we sit back and wait. And see how much of Hulett's head is buried in Hulett's large intestine.


Anonymous said...

I hope it does well.
I really liked the first one!

I fear the Pirate movie could hurt it a little too -

Anonymous said...

I dont think The Hangover 2 will be small competition. KFP2 will be #1 Im sure, but TH2 will be taking a significant bite in the 17+ crowd.

Anonymous said...

^I think it's going to be the other way around. Hangover #1, Panda second. The tracking on Panda has thus far been underwhelming.

Anonymous said...

Dreamworks is truly a cartoon factory... Meanwhile Sony has been trying to get something on the pipeline for these Executives justify their salaries?¿?¿?

TotalD said...

I don't think it will do as well but you never know, the first one was pretty good. It's hard to predict in this economy. Fingers crossed, hope it does well.

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