Now with candy-corn Add On.
The Nikkster lays it out:
1. True Grit (Paramount) Week 3 [3,124 Theaters] -- Friday $4M, Estimated Weekend $13.5M, Estimated Cume $109M
2. Little Fockers (Universal) Week 3 [3,675 Theaters] -- Friday $3.6M, Estimated Weekend $13.2M, Estimated Cume $123.5M
3. Season Of The Witch (Relativity) NEW [2,816 Theaters] -- Friday $3.6M, Estimated Weekend $9.2M
4. Country Strong (Screen Gems/Sony) Week [1,424 Theaters] -- Friday $2.6M, Estimated Weekend $7.5M
5. Tron: Legacy 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,013 Theaters] -- Friday $2.5M, Estimated Weekend $8M, Estimated Cume $146.1M
6. Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Week 6 [1,584 Theaters] -- Friday $2.3M, Estimated Weekend $7.5M, Estimated Cume $60.6M
7. The Fighter (Relativity/Paramount) Week 5 [2,528 Theaters] -- Friday $2M, Estimated Weekend $6.5M, Estimated Cume $57.3M
8. The King's Speech (The Weinstein Co) Week 7 [758 Theaters] -- Friday $1.7M, Estimated Weekend $5.5M, Estimated Cume $32M
9. Yogi Bear 3D (Warner Bros) Week 4 [3,288 Theaters] -- Friday $1.1M, Estimated Weekend $5.2M, Estimated Cume $74M
10. Chronicles Of Narnia 3D (Fox) Week 5 [2,814 Theaters] -- Friday $1M, Estimated Cume $4.7M, Estimated Cume $94.8M
Sadly, Tangled has dropped from the Top Ten, and the only animated characters now residing high in the box office lists (not counting the menagerie in Chronicles of Narnia) are Yogi and Boo-Boo.
Add On: Mojo has Tangled at #12, with $171.8 million now in the till.
Add On Too: Box Office Mojo gives us the (almost) finals:
9) Yogi Bear! -- $6.8 million -- $75.6 million -- (-45%)
10) Tangled -- $5.2 million -- $175.9 million -- (-47%)
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17 comments:
Well, it was inevitable. I think we all knew the film would be booted out as soon as the holiday season was over.
Do not pull the white flag so soon, dude.
Those are just estimates, we dont really know how much Tangled is going to rise on saturday.
HA! Tangled is the one on the 10th place, not Narnia:
http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/today.php
This nikkster site is a joke.
So as Tangled falls to the bottom of the Top 10 or off the Top 10 list (depending on whose numbers are most accurate ... we'll know on Tuesday) it hovers at around $320 million world-wide gross.
$320 million against a $260 million production budget. And this is considered ok as far as profit margin ?
Let's be extra hopeful and say maybe it makes it to $340 - $350 million worldwide before it closes it's theatrical run.
Tangled(a "hit"):
$350 million gross minus $260 million production budget = $90 million
Princess & the Frog (a "flop"):
$267 million worldwide gross minus $105 million production budget = $162 million
Bolt (an "underperformer"):
$309 million worldwide gross minus $150 million production budget = $159 million
Meet the Robinsons (no way around it , a flop):
$169 million worldwide gross minus $150 million production budget = $19 million
There it is:
Tangled = $90 mil.
Princess & the Frog = $162 mil.
Bolt = $159 mil.
Meet the Robinsons = $19 mil.
So even if Tangled (a hit) does better than a $350 million worldwide gross by the end , do you think it will manage to do well enough to make an additional $72 million before it closes to equal the profit margin of The Princess & the Frog (a flop) ?
I think if your movie makes it into the top 10 of the year, then it's perceived as a hit regardless.
Tangled was about to do that... But it needs another 8 million to top The Karate Kid. Gonna be close.
Tangled hasnt been released in 55% of the international market yet, so it still has the oportunity to make 320 (or maybe more) overseas and 180 domestically (if the movie follows the same trajectory of Frog exactly a year ago) to make 500 million dollars worldwide (again, maybe could be a little bit more than that).
Plus, the REAL budget of the film is 150 million dollars, the rest of the budget is from the previous version of the film, so 300 million dollards worldwide is already a hit.
Some of the commenters here don't have a clue about movie financials. First, about half of the theatrical gross goes to theater owners. So a $360 million worldwide gross means around $180 million back to the studio. Second, the production budget doesn't account for prints and advertising. For Tangled, that budget was well north of $60 million, and needs to be covered before there's any profit.
Also, studio bookkeepers will usually subtract out much of the wasted preproduction costs from the 'production' budget, but no matter how you slice it, Disney still spent that $100 million plus making different versions of Rapunzel/Rapunzel Reborn/Tangled before the 'real' production began, and they wouldn't have arrived at the version they did if they hadn't gone through all those other iterations.
Bottom line is, there was a time when Rapunzel/Tangled looked like one of the biggest money wasters in the history of the studio, and at this point it looks like it will end up (after DVDs, pay TV, and merchandising) somewhere near the break even point (maybe a slight loss, maybe a slight profit).
Here we go again with the monday morning quarterbacking.
Bottom line, Tangled is an artistic and financial win for Disney. The studio is full-steam ahead on their next productions with buckets of new confidence and support from the corporate studio heads.
What else could they ask for?
They could ask for real leadership that doesn't only kick in AFTER you have a surprise hit. Any success Disney has in 2011-2012 will have roots in the actions that have taken place in 2008-2010.
Before Tangled's unexpected success, the leadership at Disney was already retreating from the film, was already taking a 'go slow' approach, and running with a bare-bones staff of creatives.
My friends who were recently laid off, and my friends who were recently given their lay-off notices, would argue that 'full steam ahead' is so much rhetoric. Let's hope it eventually is proven true, but actions speak louder than words.
the leadership at Disney was already retreating from the film
Do you mean John and Ed or do you mean Iger and Ross?
'full steam ahead' is so much rhetoric
When I say full-steam ahead, I mean that the public notion that Disney has "nothing in the works" is incorrect, and that the films in development are fresh, exciting, and led by some very talented and creative directors. But the layoffs suck, I agree. Everyone agrees.
When I say the leadership, I mean the leadership. Ed in both internal and external statements was clearly not expecting Tangled to do much, and was trying to manage expectations downwards. Ross is out to slash anything that Cook had a hand in. Lasseter is busy collecting accolades and making sure Cars 2 doesn't completely suck.
As for your explanation of 'full steam ahead,' realize the discussion here is mostly among working professionals (though the know-nothing fanboys make that hard sometimes). Many of us know, and have known, quite a bit about what is happening behind the scenes and behind the public pronouncements regarding development at Disney.
Remember that there was a time when people thought 'Atlantis' and 'Treasure Planet' were fresh and exciting, and there was a time when people were sure that 'Tangled' was the opposite of fresh and exciting. The proof will be in the films, and the key is that the studio needs to be actively making films. Right now there's not so much production activity, unlike at Disney's competitors. People can talk about post-Tangled 'momentum,' but it's hard to have momentum when the studio pretty much grinds to a halt just before each release, while management holds their breath to see how the film does.
Second, the production budget doesn't account for prints and advertising. For Tangled, that budget was well north of $60 million, and needs to be covered before there's any profit.
Outsiders and lower level studio employees can never know for certain what the actual budget of a studio feature is. Books are constantly being cooked.
My friends who were recently laid off, and my friends who were recently given their lay-off notices, would argue that 'full steam ahead' is so much rhetoric.
My opinion: The content of recent Disney animated features has ticked up since Lasseter and Catmull came aboard.
The management of studio personnel (i.e. retention of employees) has declined.
I've been walking around inside Disney Feature Animation since 1989. General morale was much higher in the mid-nineties.
**Ross is out to slash anything that Cook had a hand in.**
He okayed that stupid Muppet movie though, the schmuck.
I would love to know what WDAS has in development. I agree with the above comments that morale is down, and they no longer have faith in their films.
Tangled is an artistic success and will help them with future films.
Tangled is number 9 with 5.2 million this weekend, its seventh.
Chugging along.
Can we SERIOUSLY, week after week, stop predicting the demise of this film based on FRIDAY numbers?
10. Tangled (Disney) Week 7 [2,383 Theaters]
Friday $1M, Saturday $2.5M, Cume $5.2M, Cume $175.9M
This Disney juggernaut added another $26.3M from overseas and opened at #1 in all 10 of this weekend’s debut territories, including Australia, Brazil, Greece, New Zealand, Argentina, and Columbia. The film is currently in release in 43 territories representing approximately 55% of the international market. It will soon expand to the UK, Scandinavia, Spain, Korea, and Japan as its international cume climbs to $179.3M for a global cume now of $355.2M.
Take that Disney Haters!!!
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