Prognostications regarding Thanksgiving box office? The consensus is Tangled will end its opening five days in the #2 position:
"Tangled" ... is expected to earn $47 million. Exhibitor Relations expects $30 million of [the movie’s] take will come from Friday, Saturday and Sunday. That would put the film slightly ahead of last year’s "The Princess and the Frog", which earned $24 million its opening weekend
And Movie Web's Box Office Predictions has it in the same ballpark.
The movie is predicted to earn about $28.6 million in its opening week.
Question is, would that be $28.6 million for Wedneday through Sunday? Or Friday through Sunday?
By the end of the second weekend, Disney number crunchers will have a reasonably accurate idea how the Mouse's 50th animated feature is going to perform domestically. Will it gross three times its opening weekend? (Slight underperformer.) Four times its opening? (Solid.) Or will it rake in five times its initial roll-out? (Exemplary.)
Eighteen days hence, we should know.
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Assuming these predictions are close then Disney has another problem on their hands (as well as JL) - especially when you consider the considerable amount it cost to produce.
As long as we're making predictions, assuming the above ones are accurate, I predict that JL will not be the man in charge at DFA this same time next year.
And it still has to be measured against WHAT DID IT ACTUALLY COST TO MAKE ? I'm sure they did some nice creative accounting to write off the 7 - 8 years of development work on the previous Glen Keane version of "Rapunzel" so all that money poured down a hole doesn't "count" against Tangled's budget , but even so with the massive overtime to finish the movie how much did the final version of "Tangled" come in for ? $100 mil ? $150 mil ? $200 mil ? We can never really know can we ... so how does one accurately measure how much "Tangled" NEEDS to make to get to the break-even point and then how much does it need over that amount to be considered a profitable hit ?
If it "only" cost $100 - to - $120 million then it has less of a steep hill to climb to get into the profitable zone, but if it cost $ 180 - to - $200 million then it will be a very long climb into the profitable zone.
Any guesses on what it cost to make "Tangled" (leaving aside all the money wasted on the discarded "Rapunzel" predecessor) ?
The L.A. times article claims north of 260 mil before advertising budget.
"The Princess and the Frog" was a much better film than it's total take would have left you believing. It wasn't the film's fault the company behind the studio decided to extend it's "Princess" brand to TPATF and thereby virtually exclude everyone but young mothers and little girls from its marketing campaign.
"Tangled" is a spectacularly beautiful take on classic fairy tale story telling as well as being a film that makes excellent use of 3D, which never gets in the way of the story while at the same bringing new, err, depth to it. And on top of everything else it's laugh-out-loud funny and as heart warming and touching as any classic Disney animated film. Maximus the horse alone is worth the price of admission.
Studio politics, marketing, and release timing not withstanding "Tangled" is a worthy heir to the title of Walt Disney Animation Studios 50th feature length animated film.
All of that said, wedged in between "Deathly Hallows" and "TRON" the question remains, will "Tangled" be able to draw adults away from the whirl of shopping and holiday social gatherings, as well as families with children, in sufficient numbers to hold its own at the box office.
I certainly hope so.
#2's realistic for Tangled, since Harry Potter would normally spend itself out with non-stop afternoon sellouts during the first 10 days if it was summer.
But it's NOT summer--Kids are still in school during the day (movie-flu notwithstanding), and the sellouts all happen for the 7pm shows. Which leaves almost twice as many people who couldn't get in the first week that will try to come back the second week, which can still be formidable competition to anything new.
"The Princess and the Frog" was a much better film than it's total take would have left you believing. It wasn't the film's fault the company behind the studio decided to extend it's "Princess" brand to TPATF and thereby virtually exclude everyone but young mothers and little girls from its marketing campaign.
Yeah, imagine how P&tF would've been better received if it opened at #1 box office for its first national weekend...
Er, oops, sorry, my mistake: IT DID.
(And that was on the strength of brand-loyal viewers who wanted to see movies with princesses in them, as opposed to hyperactive chickens.)
When the "#1 film in the country!", as the ads like to say, brings in a "measly" $24M, I suspect the problem to be a bit wider ranging across the board than just one movie--Think how "Invictus" must have felt opening 3rd with $8M.
Let's be honest, NOBODY was going to a theater that second week in December '09. And while you're enjoying your fun Black Friday shopping with your kids this weekend, take a moment to stop and consider why. ;)
Interesting...
http://www.deadline.com/2010/11/first-box-office-tangled-bigger-than-expected/
Everyone here seems to hate the marketing for Tangled, but I think it's done a lot to dispell the "princess" stigma for this film and make it seem more like an adventure story.
Like it or not, Disney's princess branding has caused the company a lot of damage. Disney went from the company that makes entertainment for *everyone*, to the company that caters exclusively to preschool girls. The "Disney Princesses" may have made a lot of money in the short term, but the long term damage is going to take a long time to undo.
I suspect the LA Times article claiming this would be the last Disney fairytale has perhaps galvanized interest. Every mother is going to want to bring her kids to see the "last" one.
Nikki Finke's site now saying that Disney predicting the 5-day weekend total will be in the high 60's.
This is the biggest success by far for Disney Feature in a very very long time.
""The Princess and the Frog" was a much better film than it's total take would have left you believing.v"
No. It wasn't. It was barely a notch above a Saturday morning cartoon from Filmation.
Shouldn't tangles make 60m its a 5 day holiday weekend opening
It made 69 million so far in 5 days!
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