Friday, February 28, 2014

Industry Soothsayers

Stock analysts as movie predictors.

... Cowen and Co.'s Doug Creutz predicts around a $35M opening weekend for Mr. Peabody and Sherman. That would “likely put the film on a Guardians/Turbo type trajectory.” Although “early reviews have been fairly strong,” he warns that the prospects remain “murky” since “demand for animated fare may be a bit sated right now with the recent outsized performances of Frozen and Lego Movie.” ...

Stifel’s Benjamin Mogil's ... projection that P&S will generate $150M domestically and $450M abroad is “likely too optimistic given the early tracking commentary” and will be revised later this week. ...

And blah and blah ...

Early reviews for Mr. Peabody and Sherman have been a bit more than "fairly strong." Which doesn't mean the movie will be breaking records, but it probably will gain some traction, don't you think?

(A DWA staffer said to me: "The Rocky and Bullwinkle" short plain with "P & S" is a gut-buster. That's got to count for something.")

Anybody who blats out predictions regarding how a cartoon feature will perform better prepare themselves for being wrong. The last two years, doomsayers have moaned how the box office for animated fare was about to fall off a cliff. But so far Lego-Frozen-Despicable Me-Croods-Monster University have refused to tumble.

So what gives?

Only the William Goldman axiom on steroids: If nobody in Hollywood knows anything, stock analysts making predictions about Hollywood features know less.


Grant said...

I think they're being optimistic. No one knows or cares who Peabody and Sherman are. Looks terrible. Not as bad as that flop Rise of the Guardians, but close.

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