Thursday, March 21, 2013

Stating the Obvious

From Business Insider.

... Analysts have "The Croods" projected to open between $38 million and $45 million.

Stifel analyst Benjamin Mogil predicts the film could earn $150 million domestically and another $300 million overseas.

Those numbers are 20 percent below the $60.3 million opening of last summer's "Madagascar 3." Current tracking for "The Croods" is more in line with the "Shrek" spinoff "Puss in Boots."

If the film performs well, then it will prove the "Guardians" debut was simply an anomaly.

However, if it fails to meet analyst's estimates, and teeters close to DreamWorks Animation's Thanksgiving debut, the studio could have a larger problem on its hands with only one other film — about a racing snail — out later this year. ...

Jeffrey K. and associates have long been doing a high-wire act ... and doing it well.

But to have a business model that requires you to release one blockbuster hit after another is ... a tall order. Pixar has done it. And DreamWorks Animation has sort of done it.

But DWA is a stand-alone company, almost totally dependent on its movies to keep the corporate ball rolling. DreamWorks Animation now has a sizable library to exploit, and other businesses that it's starting to get into, but it's still in high-wire act mode.

And after Rise of the Guardians's under-performance, it's got some weights bolted to its extremities. So this weekend's grosses will be important, no?


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